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Examining the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in the Ten Most Polluting Emerging Economies: Economic Dynamics and Sustainability

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  • Goktug Sahin

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, 06500 Ankara, Türkiye)

  • Mustafa Naimoglu

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, 12000 Bingol, Türkiye)

  • Ismail Kavaz

    (Department of Labor Economics and Industrial Relations, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Firat University, 23119 Elazig, Türkiye)

  • Afsin Sahin

    (Department of Finance and Banking, Faculty of Financial Sciences, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, 06500 Ankara, Türkiye)

Abstract

In the context of the Environmental Phillips Curve hypothesis, this study investigates the impact of unemployment on environmental quality in ten emerging economies with the highest carbon emissions, as identified in the International Monetary Fund’s 2015 World Economic Outlook. The primary aim of this study is to estimate the effects of income, natural gas usage, renewable energy usage, unemployment, and population size on carbon dioxide emissions in the selected countries. The study utilizes panel data from 1990 to 2019 and employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to evaluate the short- and long-run relationships between these variables. Findings obtained using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator indicate that both income and population size have a significant positive impact on air pollution levels, whereas natural gas consumption and the use of renewable energy correlate with a decrease in emissions. The results support a negative correlation between unemployment and environmental degradation, aligning with the EPC. The error correction term suggests that the process returns to equilibrium in about 2.8 years. The findings are validated through robustness tests utilizing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators. This study offers important insights for environmental policymaking in these emerging economies, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development strategies and green energy adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Goktug Sahin & Mustafa Naimoglu & Ismail Kavaz & Afsin Sahin, 2025. "Examining the Environmental Phillips Curve Hypothesis in the Ten Most Polluting Emerging Economies: Economic Dynamics and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:920-:d:1574506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jing Zhou & Chao Chen & Zhengxing He & Jiaming Tang, 2025. "Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in the Planting Industry: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-27, March.

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