Simulation Analysis of the Three-Party Evolutionary Game of Green Housing Market Stakeholders Under Low-Carbon Policies

As an important part of green building, green housing (GH) has become a strategic priority in many countries. However, the market share of GH remains limited due to conflicting interests and divergent strategic choices among stakeholders. To address this challenge, various low-carbon policy tools, such as financial subsidies (FS), carbon taxes (CT), and carbon emissions trading (CET), have been introduced. Despite these efforts, the influence of low-carbon policies on stakeholders’ strategies remains inadequately understood. This study aims to bridge this research gap by constructing an evolutionary game model that incorporates the government, developers, and consumers while considering relevant policy factors. The model identifies evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) for each stakeholder. Then, based on MATLAB 2021b, several simulations are carried out for initial, development, mature, and stable stage. The simulation results show the dynamic changes in stakeholder behavior over time. This study also analyzes how key parameters affect the system’s evolution and puts forward suggestions from each stakeholder’s perspective. The results show that (1) consumer subsidies are more effective than those for developers. (2) Subsidies for developers cause more significant financial pressure on governments than subsidies for consumers. (3) The CET policy helps developers adopt GH more quickly. (4) Proper CT promotes developers to make greener choices. (5) Reducing the difference between green and traditional housing supports the stable development of the GHM. This study offers theoretical insights to guide stakeholder decision-making and provides practical recommendations for government aiming to play a role in fostering GHM development.