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The Impact of Carbon Market and Carbon Tax on Green Growth Pathway in China: A Dynamic CGE Model Approach

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  • Huimin Bi
  • Hao Xiao
  • Kejuan Sun

Abstract

Carbon market and carbon tax affect economic activity in various ways, resulting in different pathways for green growth in China. We build a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to discuss the differences in green growth paths induced by differences in intrinsic technical incentives in carbon-abatement policies under three scenarios: a carbon market, a carbon tax, and a mixed policy. The main results are as follows. In carbon market scenario, although the short-term carbon mitigation effect is less prominent, the double dividend of emissions reduction and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth will come about in the long run according to the Porter hypothesis. Carbon tax leads to a relatively dramatic decrease in the growth of GDP and a positive effect on carbon mitigation in the short run; however, these effects decline in the long run. The effect of the mixed policy is not simple combination of the impacts of the above two policies, but shows another pathway for green growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huimin Bi & Hao Xiao & Kejuan Sun, 2019. "The Impact of Carbon Market and Carbon Tax on Green Growth Pathway in China: A Dynamic CGE Model Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(6), pages 1312-1325, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:55:y:2019:i:6:p:1312-1325
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1505609
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    Cited by:

    1. Ullah, Atta & Ullah, Saif & Pinglu, Chen & Khan, Saba, 2023. "Impact of FinTech, governance and environmental taxes on energy transition: Pre-post COVID-19 analysis of belt and road initiative countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Huayun Zhai & Danlan Liu & Kam C. Chan, 2019. "The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Firm Export: Evidence from China’s Ecological Protection Red Line Policy?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Lunyou Pei & Bing Wang & Ying Liu & Xiaoling Liu, 2023. "Optimization of Preventive Maintenance Timing of Highway Bridges Considering China’s “Dual Carbon” Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Shuyang Chen, 2022. "The inequality impacts of the carbon tax in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Li, Xiaoyu & Yao, Xilong, 2020. "Can energy supply-side and demand-side policies for energy saving and emission reduction be synergistic?--- A simulated study on China's coal capacity cut and carbon tax," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2020. "Is emission trading scheme an opportunity for renewable energy in China? A perspective of ETS revenue redistributions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    7. Yunting Feng & Yong Geng & Ge Zhao & Mengya Li, 2022. "Carbon Emission Constraint Policy in an OEM and Outsourcing Remanufacturer Supply Chain with Consumer Preferences," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Chen, Shuyang & Wang, Can, 2023. "Inequality impacts of ETS penalties: A case study on the recent Chinese nationwide ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Mardones, Cristian & Cabello, Martin, 2019. "Effectiveness of local air pollution and GHG taxes: The case of Chilean industrial sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 491-500.
    10. Liurui Deng & Wentang Xu & Juan Luo, 2021. "Optimal Loan Pricing for Agricultural Supply Chains from a Green Credit Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Xiqiang Xia & Mengya Li & Biao Li & Hao Wang, 2021. "The Impact of Carbon Trade on Outsourcing Remanufacturing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-18, October.
    12. Shuang Liang & Xinyue Lin & Xiaoxue Liu & Haoran Pan, 2022. "The Pathway to China’s Carbon Neutrality Based on an Endogenous Technology CGE Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Chong Zhang & Zhiying Feng, 2024. "Carbon emissions trading price forecasts by multi-perspective fusion," Economic Analysis Letters, Anser Press, vol. 3(2), pages 13-25, June.
    14. Cao, Jing & Dai, Hancheng & Li, Shantong & Guo, Chaoyi & Ho, Mun & Cai, Wenjia & He, Jianwu & Huang, Hai & Li, Jifeng & Liu, Yu & Qian, Haoqi & Wang, Can & Wu, Libo & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: A multi-model comparison," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. Biao Li & Yong Geng & Xiqiang Xia & Dan Qiao & Hao Wang, 2021. "Comparatively Analyzing the Impact of Government Subsidy and Carbon Tax Policy on Authorized Remanufacturing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-18, August.
    16. Zhang, Jinzhu & Liu, Yu & Zhou, Meifang & Chen, Boyang & Liu, Yawen & Cheng, Baodong & Xue, Jinjun & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Regulatory effect of improving environmental information disclosure under environmental tax in China: From the perspectives of temporal and industrial heterogeneity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).

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