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Identifying and Prioritizing Climate-Related Natural Hazards for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea Using Delphi

Author

Listed:
  • Dongchang Kim

    (Department of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of Korea)

  • Shinyoung Kwag

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanbat National University, Daejeon 34158, Republic of Korea)

  • Minkyu Kim

    (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 34057, Republic of Korea)

  • Raeyoung Jung

    (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon 34142, Republic of Korea)

  • Seunghyun Eem

    (Department of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Sangju 37224, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of natural hazards such as heat waves, extreme rainfall, heavy snowfall, typhoons, droughts, floods, and cold waves, potentially impacting the operational safety of critical infrastructure, including nuclear power plants (NPPs). Although quantitative indicators exist to screen-out natural hazards at NPPs, comprehensive methodologies for assessing climate-related hazards remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, given the variability and uncertainty of climate change, it is realistically and resource-wise difficult to evaluate all potential risks quantitatively. Using a structured expert elicitation approach, this study systematically identifies and prioritizes climate-related natural hazards for Korean NPPs. An iterative Delphi survey involving 42 experts with extensive experience in nuclear safety and systems was conducted and also evaluated using the best–worst scaling (BWS) method for cross-validation to enhance the robustness of the Delphi priorities. Both methodologies identified extreme rainfall, typhoons, marine organisms, forest fires, and lightning as the top five hazards. The findings provide critical insights for climate resilience planning, inform vulnerability assessments, and support regulatory policy development to mitigate climate-induced risks to Korean nuclear power plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongchang Kim & Shinyoung Kwag & Minkyu Kim & Raeyoung Jung & Seunghyun Eem, 2025. "Identifying and Prioritizing Climate-Related Natural Hazards for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea Using Delphi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5400-:d:1676830
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Kristin Linnerud & Torben K. Mideksa & Gunnar S. Eskeland, 2011. "The Impact of Climate Change on Nuclear Power Supply," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-168.
    5. Maximilian Kotz & Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz, 2024. "Author Correction: The economic commitment of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 631(8020), pages 9-9, July.
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