Research on the Impact of Fintech on Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from 286 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

While fintech offers new pathways for carbon emission reduction, its underlying mechanisms and regional disparities remain underexplored. Unlike prior studies, this study systematically examines the heterogeneous impact of fintech on carbon emissions by integrating geographic, regulatory, and developmental dimensions, while uncovering the counteracting “rebound effect” of technological innovation. Based on panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities in China (2010–2021), this study employs instrumental variable approaches and interaction effect models to examine the regional heterogeneity and underlying mechanisms of fintech’s carbon-emission-reduction effects. The results are as follows: (1) Fintech development demonstrates a statistically significant negative correlation with carbon emissions, confirming its emission-reduction potential; (2) The emission-reduction effects of fintech demonstrate substantial regional heterogeneity, with particularly pronounced impacts observed in eastern and western regions, smaller-sized cities, and areas with relatively lenient environmental regulations; (3) Fintech effectively curbs carbon emissions by optimizing industrial structure and improving energy efficiency. However, technological innovation exhibits a significant “rebound effect” that undermines fintech’s emission-reduction efficacy. This adverse impact is most evident during the nascent stage of fintech development and in non-resource-based cities. Policymakers should adopt region-specific strategies to align fintech with low-carbon industries while introducing carbon impact assessments for innovations to counteract rebound effects and maximize fintech’s emission-reduction potential.