IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i10p4699-d1660101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating Multi-Model Coupling to Assess Habitat Quality Dynamics: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Scenario-Based Projections in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Author

Listed:
  • Yuzhou Zhang

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Biological Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China)

  • Jianxin Yang

    (School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Weilong Wu

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Biological Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China)

  • Diwei Tang

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Biological Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China)

Abstract

As a pivotal ecological–economic nexus in China, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB)’s spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality (HQ) profoundly influences regional sustainable development. This study establishes a tripartite analytical framework integrating remote sensing big data, socioeconomic datasets, and ecological modeling. By coupling the InVEST and PLUS models with Theil–Sen median trend analysis and Mann–Kendall tests, we systematically assessed HQ spatial heterogeneity across the basin during 2000–2020 and projected trends under 2030 scenarios (natural development (S1), cropland protection (S2), and ecological conservation (S3)). Key findings reveal that basin-wide HQ remained stable (0.599–0.606) but exhibited marked spatial disparities, demonstrating a “high-middle reach (0.636–0.649), low upper/lower reach” pattern. Urbanized downstream areas recorded the minimum HQ (0.478–0.515), primarily due to landscape fragmentation from peri-urban expansion and transportation infrastructure. Trend analysis showed that coefficient of variation (CV) values ranged from 0.350 to 2.72 (mean = 0.768), indicating relative stability but significant spatial variability. While 76.98% of areas showed no significant HQ changes, 15.83% experienced declines (3.56% with significant degradation, p < 0.05) concentrated in urban agglomerations (e.g., the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, the Yangtze River Delta). Only 7.18% exhibited an HQ improvement, predominantly in snowmelt-affected Qinghai–Tibet Plateau regions, with merely 0.95% showing a significant enhancement. Multi-scenario projections align with Theil–Sen trends, predicting HQ declines across all scenarios. S3 curbs decline to 0.33% (HQ = 0.597), outperforming S1 (1.07%) and S2 (1.15%). Nevertheless, downstream areas remain high-risk (S3 HQ = 0.476). This study elucidated compound drivers of urbanization, agricultural encroachment, and climate change, proposing a synergistic “zoning regulation–corridor restoration–cross-regional compensation” pathway. These findings provide scientific support for balancing ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yangtze Economic Belt, while offering systematic solutions for the sustainable governance of global mega-basins.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuzhou Zhang & Jianxin Yang & Weilong Wu & Diwei Tang, 2025. "Integrating Multi-Model Coupling to Assess Habitat Quality Dynamics: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Scenario-Based Projections in the Yangtze River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:10:p:4699-:d:1660101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/10/4699/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/10/4699/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rehman, Shafiqur, 2009. "Study of Saudi Arabian climatic conditions using Hurst exponent and climatic predictability index," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 499-509.
    2. Cole, Matthew A. & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Wu, Shanshan, 2008. "Industrial activity and the environment in China: An industry-level analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-408, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xavier Pautrel, 2015. "Abatement Technology and the Environment–Growth Nexus with Education," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(3), pages 297-318, July.
    2. Zhou, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Jie & Li, Junpeng, 2013. "Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 43-51.
    3. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J.R. Elliott & Jing Zhang, 2011. "Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, And The Environment: Evidence From Chinese Cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 121-138, February.
    4. Mathilde Maurel & Thomas Pernet & Zhao Ruili, 2019. "Financial Dependencies, Environmental Regulation and Pollution Intensity: Evidence From China," Post-Print halshs-02423350, HAL.
    5. Karine Constant & Marion Davin, 2019. "Unequal Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Transmission of Adverse Effects Through International Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 727-759, October.
    6. Dana C. Andersen, 2016. "Credit Constraints, Technology Upgrading, and the Environment," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 283-319.
    7. Brucal, Arlan & Javorcik, Beata & Love, Inessa, 2019. "Good for the environment, good for business: Foreign acquisitions and energy intensity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Larivière, Jean-Michel & He, Jie, 2012. "L’impact de la taille des firmes industrielles sur la courbe de Kuznets environnementale : le cas des émissions de SO2 en Chine," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 5-36, mars.
    9. Feng Liu & Kangning Xu & Meina Zheng, 2018. "The Effect of Environmental Regulation on Employment in China: Empirical Research Based on Individual-Level Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    10. Mucahit Aydin & Tunahan Degirmenci, 2024. "The impact of clean energy consumption, green innovation, and technological diffusion on environmental sustainability: New evidence from load capacity curve hypothesis for 10 European Union countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 2358-2370, June.
    11. Sapkota, Pratikshya & Bastola, Umesh, 2017. "Foreign direct investment, income, and environmental pollution in developing countries: Panel data analysis of Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 206-212.
    12. Udo Kreickemeier & Philipp M. Richter, 2014. "Trade and the Environment: The Role of Firm Heterogeneity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 209-225, May.
    13. Yao, Yao & Ivanovski, Kris & Inekwe, John & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Human capital and CO2 emissions in the long run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Zhang, Dayong & Li, Jun & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Does better access to credit help reduce energy intensity in China? Evidence from manufacturing firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Weidong Sun & Zhigang Chen & Danyang Wang, 2019. "Can Land Marketization Help Reduce Industrial Pollution?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, June.
    16. Wu, Linfei & Sun, Liwen & Qi, Peixiao & Ren, Xiangwei & Sun, Xiaoting, 2021. "Energy endowment, industrial structure upgrading, and CO2 emissions in China: Revisiting resource curse in the context of carbon emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Hering, Laura & Poncet, Sandra, 2014. "Environmental policy and exports: Evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-318.
    18. Brajer, Victor & Mead, Robert W. & Xiao, Feng, 2011. "Searching for an Environmental Kuznets Curve in China's air pollution," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 383-397, September.
    19. Vikash Ramiah & Jacopo Pichelli & Imad Moosa, 2015. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on Corporate Performance: A Chinese Perspective," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-31, December.
    20. Lan, Jing & Munro, Alistair, 2013. "Environmental compliance and human capital: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 534-557.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:10:p:4699-:d:1660101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.