IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i8p3474-d1379943.html

A Time Series Prediction Model for Wind Power Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition–Convolutional Neural Network–Three-Dimensional Gated Neural Network

Author

Listed:
  • Zhiyong Guo

    (College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

  • Fangzheng Wei

    (College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

  • Wenkai Qi

    (College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

  • Qiaoli Han

    (College of Energy and Traffic Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

  • Huiyuan Liu

    (College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

  • Xiaomei Feng

    (College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

  • Minghui Zhang

    (College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China)

Abstract

In response to the global challenge of climate change and the shift away from fossil fuels, the accurate prediction of wind power generation is crucial for optimizing grid operations and managing energy storage. This study introduces a novel approach by integrating the proportional–integral–derivative (PID) control theory into wind power forecasting, employing a three-dimensional gated neural (TGN) unit designed to enhance error feedback mechanisms. The proposed empirical mode decomposition (EMD)–convolutional neural network (CNN)–three-dimensional gated neural network (TGNN) framework starts with the pre-processing of wind data using EMD, followed by feature extraction via a CNN, and time series forecasting using the TGN unit. This setup leverages proportional, integral, and differential control within its architecture to improve adaptability and response to dynamic wind patterns. The experimental results show significant improvements in forecasting accuracy; the EMD–CNN–TGNN model outperforms both traditional models like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), and similar neural network approaches, such as EMD–CNN–GRU and EMD–CNN–LSTM, across several metrics including mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination ( R 2 ). These advancements substantiate the model’s effectiveness in enhancing the precision of wind power predictions, offering substantial implications for future renewable energy management and storage solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiyong Guo & Fangzheng Wei & Wenkai Qi & Qiaoli Han & Huiyuan Liu & Xiaomei Feng & Minghui Zhang, 2024. "A Time Series Prediction Model for Wind Power Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition–Convolutional Neural Network–Three-Dimensional Gated Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-20, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3474-:d:1379943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3474/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3474/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Urolagin, Siddhaling & Sharma, Nikhil & Datta, Tapan Kumar, 2021. "A combined architecture of multivariate LSTM with Mahalanobis and Z-Score transformations for oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Cui, Yang & Chen, Zhenghong & He, Yingjie & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Fen, 2023. "An algorithm for forecasting day-ahead wind power via novel long short-term memory and wind power ramp events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    3. Wang, Huai-zhi & Li, Gang-qiang & Wang, Gui-bin & Peng, Jian-chun & Jiang, Hui & Liu, Yi-tao, 2017. "Deep learning based ensemble approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 56-70.
    4. Kisvari, Adam & Lin, Zi & Liu, Xiaolei, 2021. "Wind power forecasting – A data-driven method along with gated recurrent neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1895-1909.
    5. Khosravi, A. & Machado, L. & Nunes, R.O., 2018. "Time-series prediction of wind speed using machine learning algorithms: A case study Osorio wind farm, Brazil," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 550-566.
    6. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Daniel Villanueva & Kishore Kulat, 2019. "A Review on Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition Models for Wind Speed and Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, January.
    7. Petersen, Claire & Reguant, Mar & Segura, Lola, 2024. "Measuring the impact of wind power and intermittency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Vaia I. Kontopoulou & Athanasios D. Panagopoulos & Ioannis Kakkos & George K. Matsopoulos, 2023. "A Review of ARIMA vs. Machine Learning Approaches for Time Series Forecasting in Data Driven Networks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, July.
    9. Shahid, Farah & Zameer, Aneela & Muneeb, Muhammad, 2021. "A novel genetic LSTM model for wind power forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yongkang Liu & Yi Gu & Yuwei Long & Qinyu Zhang & Yonggang Zhang & Xu Zhou, 2025. "Research on Physically Constrained VMD-CNN-BiLSTM Wind Power Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Miaosen & Zheng, Guoqiang & Su, Zhonge & Kong, Lingrui & Wang, Guodong, 2024. "Short-term wind power prediction based on improved variational modal decomposition, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and BiGRU networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    2. Wu, Zhou & Zeng, Shaoxiong & Jiang, Ruiqi & Zhang, Haoran & Yang, Zhile, 2023. "Explainable temporal dependence in multi-step wind power forecast via decomposition based chain echo state networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    4. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    5. Yuzgec, Ugur & Dokur, Emrah & Balci, Mehmet, 2024. "A novel hybrid model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Echo State Network for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    6. Wang, Xiaodi & Hao, Yan & Yang, Wendong, 2024. "Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    7. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Manisha Sawant & Rupali Patil & Tanmay Shikhare & Shreyas Nagle & Sakshi Chavan & Shivang Negi & Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde, 2022. "A Selective Review on Recent Advancements in Long, Short and Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-24, October.
    9. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    10. Shahram Hanifi & Saeid Lotfian & Hossein Zare-Behtash & Andrea Cammarano, 2022. "Offshore Wind Power Forecasting—A New Hyperparameter Optimisation Algorithm for Deep Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Zhao, Geya & Xue, Minggao & Cheng, Li, 2023. "A new hybrid model for multi-step WTI futures price forecasting based on self-attention mechanism and spatial–temporal graph neural network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    12. Zhengxuan Xiao & Fei Tang & Mengyuan Wang, 2023. "Wind Power Short-Term Forecasting Method Based on LSTM and Multiple Error Correction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Xiao, Yiping & Wei, Honghao & Shi, Ying & Zhang, Haiyang & Shen, Zongtao & Jiao, Hongjian, 2025. "A short-term wind power prediction based on MCOOT optimized deep learning networks and attention-weighted environmental factors for error correction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    14. Geng, Donghan & Zhang, Yongkang & Zhang, Yunlong & Qu, Xingchuang & Li, Longfei, 2025. "A hybrid model based on CapSA-VMD-ResNet-GRU-attention mechanism for ultra-short-term and short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    15. Wang, Qiang & Xu, Feiyan & He, Jiahua & Luo, Kun & Fan, Jianren, 2026. "A new fusion model for enhanced ultra-short-term offshore wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PA).
    16. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Lingjun & Zhang, Fan, 2022. "A deep asymmetric Laplace neural network for deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 497-517.
    17. Jin, Huaiping & Yang, Guanzhi & Dong, Shoulong & Fan, Shouyuan & Jin, Huaikang & Wang, Bin, 2025. "Wind power forecasting for newly built wind farms based on deep learning with dual-stage attention mechanism and adaptive transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    18. Xing, Zhikai & He, Yigang, 2023. "Multi-modal multi-step wind power forecasting based on stacking deep learning model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    19. Mirza, Adeel Feroz & Shu, Zhaokun & Usman, Muhammad & Mansoor, Majad & Ling, Qiang, 2024. "Quantile-transformed multi-attention residual framework (QT-MARF) for medium-term PV and wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Lele Wang & Dongqing Zhang, 2025. "Enhancing Wind Power Forecasting Accuracy Based on OPESC-Optimized CNN-BiLSTM-SA Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-24, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3474-:d:1379943. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.