Research on Evaluation Methods for Sustainable Enrollment Plan Configurations in Chinese Universities Based on Bayesian Networks

Evaluation methods based on data-driven techniques and artificial intelligence for the sustainable enrollment plan configurations of Chinese universities have become a research hotspot in the field of higher education teaching reform. Enrollment, education, and employment constitute the three key pillars of talent cultivation in universities. However, due to an unclear understanding of their interconnection, universities have yet to establish robust quantitative relationship models, hindering the formation of an evaluation mechanism for sustainable enrollment plan configurations. This study begins by constructing a relevant indicator system and utilizing real enrollment data from a specific university. Through statistical methods such as correlation analysis, it systematically sorts out key variables and identifies seven effective indicators, including average admission score and first-time graduation rate. Subsequently, by using the increase or decrease in enrollment quotas for each major as the experimental target, evaluation models for sustainable enrollment plan configurations aimed at enhancing the advanced education rate are constructed using naïve Bayes networks and tree-augmented Bayesian networks; these are compared with three other classic machine learning methods. The accuracy of these models is evaluated through confusion matrices and receiver operating characteristic curves. Additionally, the Birnbaum importance analysis method is utilized to prioritize remaining variables, ultimately identifying the optimal combination strategy of indicators conducive to the sustainable development of the advanced education rate. The results indicate that the average admission score, transfer rate, and student/teacher ratio are the top 3 prognostic factors affecting the advanced education rate, with the TAN model achieving an accuracy of 96.49%, thus demonstrating good reliability.