Driving Paths and Evolution Trends of Urban Low-Carbon Transformation: Configuration Analysis Based on Three Batches of Low-Carbon Pilot Cities

In response to global climate challenges, urban low-carbon transformation has become a critical strategy for sustainable development. This study constructs a theoretical model for urban low-carbon transformation using the multi-level perspective framework. We focused on three batches of low-carbon pilot cities in China and employed fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to investigate the transformation pathways and impact mechanisms during the periods 2010–2012, 2012–2017, and 2017–2019. The results indicate that none of the six antecedent conditions is necessary for urban low-carbon transformation. Initially, the transformation is primarily driven by a pathway led by low-carbon industries. In the mid-stage, two pathways emerge: one dominated by the combination of low-carbon industries and research and development (R&D) human capital and another led by low-carbon consumption awareness and economic development levels. In the later stage, the influencing factors involve a combination across micro, meso, and macro levels, reflecting an increasingly diversified and intricate configuration. The regional industrial structure consistently plays a dominant role, while awareness of low-carbon consumption has grown over time. This study not only enhances our understanding of the underlying mechanisms but also provides practical policy recommendations for local governments to tailor their strategies for effective low-carbon transformation.