The Carbon Emissions from Public Buildings in China: A Systematic Analysis of Evolution and Spillover Effects

Public buildings, being the primary source of carbon emissions in China’s construction sector, present a pressing need for emission control. This imperative task not only ensures the sustainable progression of China’s building industry but also holds pivotal significance in the realm of global energy conservation and emission curtailment. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions from public buildings in China and assessed the spatial influence of related factors using a dataset covering 30 provincial units from 2006 to 2021. The analysis employed Theil’s index, Moran’s I index, standard deviation ellipse, and the spatial Durbin model. The study revealed an upward trajectory in carbon emissions from public buildings in China, although the growth rate was generally decreasing. Disparities in emission distribution among provincial units stem largely from intra-regional distinctions, notably prominent in the Low-Intensity High-Economy regions. Provincial carbon emissions from public buildings exhibited significant spatial correlation, manifesting as clusters of high–high and low–low patterns, indicative of mutual influence among adjacent areas. Additionally, the shift in carbon emission focal points from the northeast to the southwest underscored a more pronounced surge in the southwestern regions. Variables such as energy intensity, energy structure, per capita public building area, disposable income per capita, openness level, and environmental governance directly impact carbon emissions from public buildings. Among these, energy intensity, energy structure, disposable income per capita, and environmental governance also had spatial spillover effects. These findings provide a scientific reference and a foundation for policy-making, aiding local administrations in crafting strategies to mitigate carbon emissions from public buildings and foster sustainable progress.