Land Management Scale and Net Carbon Effect of Farming in China: Spatial Spillover Effects and Threshold Characteristics

The net carbon effect of farming is crucial for climate change mitigation, yet there is insufficient research on the impact of land management scale on it in China. This study aims to explore the magnitude and role of land management scale on the net carbon effect of farming at the spatial level, including threshold characteristics. Unlike previous studies focused on the domestic agricultural economy, this study employs ecological findings to calculate carbon sinks and certain carbon emissions. The carbon-balance ratio is used to characterise the net carbon effect of farming. The spatial Durbin model and threshold regression model were utilised with a sample of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2004 to 2019. The results indicate that national farming generally exhibits a net sink effect, with significant interannual fluctuations. After applying robust standard errors, the expansion of the land management scale significantly increases sinks and reduces emissions, and it has a positive spatial spillover effect on the carbon-balance ratio, demonstrating significant spatial heterogeneity. Furthermore, as the land management scale expands, the influence of rural residents’ income and education level on the carbon-balance ratio changes direction, showing significant non-linear relationship characteristics.