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Climate and Energy Crises from the Perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Trade-Offs between Systemic Transition and Societal Collapse?

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  • Jordi Solé

    (Departament de Dinàmica de la Terra i l’Oceà, Facultat de Ciències de la Terra, Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franques s/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

AR6 IPCC reports give divergent messages about the different socio-economic transition approaches to deal with the current climate emergency. The dangers of not giving a clear message to policymakers and to society on the need of changing the current socio-economic paradigm are considerable: to fall in the SSP3-7.0 scenario, which is conducive to the collapse of our current civilization. In this work, key variables to assess the main functionalities of global socio-economy are analyzed under a system dynamics approach. This allows for understanding what the evolution is of our current socio-economy in a framework of climate change and resource depletion. The aim of this work is to provide a different perspective on socio-economic evolution by identifying similar characteristics in the worst-case IPCC scenarios with historical behavior in complex societies. From such a historical perspective and the current system evolution, a conceptual model is proposed to explain our globalized complex system near to a phase transition. Then, phase transition correspondences from the model to the current socio-economic system are proposed and a series of corresponding preventive measures (in terms of social actions, economic measures, and their linked policies) are suggested to avoid collapse scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Solé, 2023. "Climate and Energy Crises from the Perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Trade-Offs between Systemic Transition and Societal Collapse?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:2231-:d:1046511
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jeff Tollefson, 2021. "COVID curbed carbon emissions in 2020 — but not by much," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7842), pages 343-343, January.
    3. Nicholas Stern, 2022. "A Time for Action on Climate Change and a Time for Change in Economics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1259-1289.
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