Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Carbon Sequestration Benefits and Identification of County-Level Compensation Orders in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Ecosystems

The role of ecosystems in sequestering carbon is becoming increasingly important as China’s “dual-carbon” strategy and the construction of an ecological civilisation continue to be promoted and implemented. The rapid economic development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is accompanied by the problem of excessive carbon emissions. Focusing on enhancing the carbon sequestration benefits of ecosystems and coordinating regional development, this paper adopts the model construction method, spatial correlation analysis, and centre of gravity migration analysis to study the spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystems’ carbon sequestration benefits in the counties of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, spatial and spatial aggregation, the pattern of centre of gravity migration, and the sequence of county compensation differentials in the period from 2000 to 2020. The results show (1) the carbon account of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region before the revision shows an overall distribution pattern of “low in the north and high in the south”. However, it is important to take into account the differences in the regional area, regional population, and regional GDP and the fact that the analysis of the amount of ecological compensation does not mechanically take into account the absolute magnitude of each value but rather takes into account all the values and then makes a trade-off for the difference in the value of the difference in the background. The spatial distribution of corrected carbon accounts is more even. (2) The high–high aggregation area of ecological compensation from 2000 to 2020 is mainly distributed in a dozen counties, such as Lulong County and Luan County in the eastern part of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, while the low–low aggregation area is mainly concentrated in counties such as Weichang County and Longhua County in the western and northern parts of the country, and the scope has a tendency to expand. (3) The centre of gravity of the ecological compensation amount moves roughly within the range of 116°17′30″ E–116°30′30″ E, 38°40′ N–38°50′ N, and the overall change rule of northwest to southeast migration is observed, with reciprocal movement in some years. (4) The top 15 lists of eco-compensation pay areas and payment areas have basically remained stable, with only some internal sorting changes, and the overall amount of payment areas is larger than that of payee areas, with sufficient surplus funds to ensure the smooth implementation of eco-compensation work at the county level in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei. The findings of this paper are important for coordinating the integrated development of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and, at the same time, contributing positively to the realisation of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.