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Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia

Author

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  • Nur Mohamed Muse

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir Institute of Technology, Izmir 35430, Turkey)

  • Gokmen Tayfur

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir Institute of Technology, Izmir 35430, Turkey)

  • Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Yaşar University, Izmir 35100, Turkey)

Abstract

Drought assessment and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature time series are essential in the planning and management of water resources. Long-term precipitation and temperature historical records (monthly for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020) are used to investigate annual drought characteristics and trend analysis in Somalia’s northern region. Six drought indices of the normal Standardized Precipitation Index ( normal-SPI ), the log normal Standardized Precipitation Index ( log-SPI ), the Standardized Precipitation Index using the gamma distribution ( Gamma-SPI ), the Percent of Normal Index ( PNI ), the Discrepancy Precipitation Index ( DPI ), and the Deciles Index ( DI ) are used in this study for the annual drought assessment. The log-SPI , the gamma-SPI , the PNI , and the DPI could capture historical extreme and severe droughts that occurred in the early 1980s and over the last two decades. The results indicate that Somalia has gone through extended drought periods over the past quarter century, exacerbating the existing humanitarian situation. The normal-SPI , gamma-SPI , and PNI indicate less and moderate drought conditions, whereas log-SPI , DPI , and DI accurately capture historical extreme and severe drought periods; thus, these methods are recommended as annual drought assessment tools in the studied region. Not only are the PNI and DPI less correlated to each other, but their correlation coefficient ( CC ) with SPI -based drought indices are not as high as SPI -based indices which are close to unity. For the purpose of the trend analysis, the Mann Kendall (MK) test, the Spearman’s rho (SR) test, and the Şen test are used. Furthermore, the Pettitt test is implemented to detect the change points and the Thiel-Sen approach is used to estimate the magnitude of trend in the precipitation and temperature time series. The results indicate that there is overall warming in the region which has experienced a significant shift in trend direction since 2000. The trend analysis of annual precipitation data time series shows that Bossaso and Garowe stations have significant positive trends, while the Qardho station has no trend. In 1997 and 1998, respectively, abrupt changes in annual precipitation are detected at Qardho and Garowe stations. Due to the civil war of more than three decades in Somalia and the non-institutionalized governance to inform historical drought conditions in the country, determining the most appropriate meteorological drought index would help to develop a drought monitoring system for states and the entire country.

Suggested Citation

  • Nur Mohamed Muse & Gokmen Tayfur & Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari, 2023. "Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:10652-:d:1187925
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    2. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    3. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    4. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
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    2. Yang Liu & Tianxing Yang & Liwei Tian & Bincheng Huang & Jiaming Yang & Zihan Zeng, 2024. "Ada-XG-CatBoost: A Combined Forecasting Model for Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-19, August.

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