IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v15y2025i14p1552-d1705406.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought Evolution in the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins and Its Dual Impact on Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration

Author

Listed:
  • Yuanhe Yu

    (College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China)

  • Huan Deng

    (School of Geographical Science and Tourism, Zhaotong University, Zhaotong 657000, China)

  • Shupeng Gao

    (College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China)

  • Jinliang Wang

    (Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China)

Abstract

As an extreme event driven by global climate change, drought poses a severe threat to terrestrial ecosystems. The Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB) are key ecological barriers and economic zones in China, holding strategic importance for exploring the evolution of drought patterns and their ecological impacts. Using meteorological station data and Climatic Research Unit Gridded Time Series (CRU TS) data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought evolution in the YZRB and YRB from 1961 to 2021 using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and run theory. Additionally, this study examined drought effects on ecosystem carbon sequestration (CS) at the city, county, and pixel scales. The results revealed the following: (1) the CRU data effectively captured precipitation (annual r = 0.94) and temperature (annual r = 0.95) trends in both basins, despite significantly underestimating winter temperatures, with the optimal SPEI calculation accuracy found at the monthly scale; (2) both basins experienced frequent autumn–winter droughts, with the YRB facing stronger droughts, including nine events which exceeded 10 months (the longest lasting 25 months), while the mild droughts increased in frequency and extreme intensity; and (3) the drought impacts on CS demonstrated a significant threshold effect, where the intensified drought unexpectedly enhanced CS in western regions, such as the Garzê Autonomous Prefecture in Sichuan Province and Changdu City in the Xizang Autonomous Region, but suppressed CS in the midstream and downstream plains. The CS responded positively under weak drought conditions but declined once the drought intensity surpassed the threshold. This study revealed a nonlinear relationship between drought and CS across climatic zones, thereby providing a scientific foundation for enhancing ecological resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanhe Yu & Huan Deng & Shupeng Gao & Jinliang Wang, 2025. "Drought Evolution in the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins and Its Dual Impact on Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-27, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:14:p:1552-:d:1705406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/14/1552/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/14/1552/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher R. Schwalm & William R. L. Anderegg & Anna M. Michalak & Joshua B. Fisher & Franco Biondi & George Koch & Marcy Litvak & Kiona Ogle & John D. Shaw & Adam Wolf & Deborah N. Huntzinger & Kev, 2017. "Global patterns of drought recovery," Nature, Nature, vol. 548(7666), pages 202-205, August.
    2. Zhang, Qi & Gong, Jian & Wang, Ying, 2024. "How resilience capacity and multiple shocks affect rural households’ subjective well-being: A comparative study of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Qaisar Saddique & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Song Cui & Chen Cheng, 2017. "Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3921-3937, September.
    4. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    5. Qian, Tanrui & Su, Xiaoling & Wu, Haijiang & Singh, Vijay P. & Zhang, Te, 2025. "An agricultural drought early warning threshold model with considering copula combined with diminishing marginal benefit theory: A case study in the Yellow River basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    6. Swinton, Scott M. & Lupi, Frank & Robertson, G. Philip & Hamilton, Stephen K., 2007. "Ecosystem services and agriculture: Cultivating agricultural ecosystems for diverse benefits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 245-252, December.
    7. Mengwei Song & Xiaohui Jiang & Yuxin Lei & Yirui Zhao & Wenjuan Cai, 2023. "Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme hydrometeorological events in the Yellow River Basin and their effects on vegetation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1863-1878, March.
    8. Markus Reichstein & Michael Bahn & Philippe Ciais & Dorothea Frank & Miguel D. Mahecha & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Jakob Zscheischler & Christian Beer & Nina Buchmann & David C. Frank & Dario Papale & An, 2013. "Climate extremes and the carbon cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 500(7462), pages 287-295, August.
    9. Yuanhe Yu & Jinliang Wang & Feng Cheng & Huan Deng & Sheng Chen, 2020. "Drought monitoring in Yunnan Province based on a TRMM precipitation product," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2369-2387, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiangzhong Luo & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Tropical extreme droughts drive long-term increase in atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Liping Jia & Yi He & Wanqing Liu & Yaru Zhang & Yanlin Li, 2023. "Response of Photosynthetic Efficiency to Extreme Drought and Its Influencing Factors in Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Xu, Yang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Zengchao & Hao, Fanghua & Li, Chong, 2021. "Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three‐dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    4. Jun Yin & Zhe Yuan & Ting Li, 2021. "The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Quang-Tuong Vo & Jae-Min So & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2020. "An Integrated Framework for Extreme Drought Assessments Using the Natural Drought Index, Copula and Gi* Statistic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1353-1368, March.
    6. Vermunt, D.A. & Wojtynia, N. & Hekkert, M.P. & Van Dijk, J. & Verburg, R. & Verweij, P.A. & Wassen, M. & Runhaar, H., 2022. "Five mechanisms blocking the transition towards ‘nature-inclusive’ agriculture: A systemic analysis of Dutch dairy farming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Ming Li & Guiwen Wang & Shengwei Zong & Xurong Chai, 2023. "Copula-Based Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Risk in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    9. Huicai Yang & Shuqin Zhao & Zhanfei Qin & Zhiguo Qi & Xinying Jiao & Zhen Li, 2024. "Differentiation of Carbon Sink Enhancement Potential in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Valbuena, Diego & Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee & Erenstein, Olaf & Teufel, Nils & Duncan, Alan & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Swain, Braja & Mekonnen, Kindu & Germaine, Ibro & Gérard, Bruno, 2015. "Identifying determinants, pressures and trade-offs of crop residue use in mixed smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 107-118.
    11. Smith, Helen F. & Sullivan, Caroline A., 2014. "Ecosystem services within agricultural landscapes—Farmers' perceptions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 72-80.
    12. F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi & L. Vergni, 2013. "Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1863-1881, February.
    13. Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul, 2022. "The Risk of Extreme Streamflow Drought in the Polish Carpathians—A Two-Dimensional Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    14. Yanqun Ren & Jinping Liu & Patrick Willems & Tie Liu & Quoc Bao Pham, 2023. "Detection and Assessment of Changing Drought Events in China in the Context of Climate Change Based on the Intensity–Area–Duration Algorithm," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, September.
    15. Shah, Syed Mahboob & Liu, Gengyuan & Yang, Qing & Casazza, Marco & Agostinho, Feni & Giannetti, Biagio F., 2021. "Sustainability assessment of agriculture production systems in Pakistan: A provincial-scale energy-based evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    16. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    17. Rocío Silva-Pérez & Gema González-Romero, 2022. "GIAHS as an Instrument to Articulate the Landscape and Territorialized Agrifood Systems—The Example of La Axarquía (Malaga Province, Spain)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, February.
    18. Yujin Li & Juying Jiao & Zhijie Wang & Binting Cao & Yanhong Wei & Shu Hu, 2016. "Effects of Revegetation on Soil Organic Carbon Storage and Erosion-Induced Carbon Loss under Extreme Rainstorms in the Hill and Gully Region of the Loess Plateau," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, April.
    19. Zahra Sadat Hosseini & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Shahla Paimozd, 2023. "Simultaneous Monitoring of Different Drought Types Using Linear and Nonlinear Combination Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1125-1151, February.
    20. Antonella Fatica & Alessio Manzo & Erika Di Iorio & Luana Circelli & Francesco Fantuz & Luca Todini & Thomas W. Crawford & Claudio Colombo & Elisabetta Salimei, 2025. "Apennine Natural Pasture Areas: Soil, Plant, and Livestock Interactions and Ecosystem Characterization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-19, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:14:p:1552-:d:1705406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.