Analysis of Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on the Ecological Footprint for the Sustainable Development of Alborz, Iran

The quick development of industrial sectors, tourism, and agriculture, which coincided with human habitation in cities, has led to the degradation of environmental qualities. Thus, a detailed plan is required to balance the development and environmental conservation of urban areas to achieve sustainability. This paper uses the environmental carrying capacity (i.e., ecological footprint and biological capacity) model to estimate ecological sustainability and achieve the desired balance. The results reveal that problems, such as unbalanced land development, the destruction of protected areas, and changes in land use in favor of industrial and residential development, persist in the area under study. Additionally, the studied area has been facing an ecological deficit since 1992. If this trend continues, the area will lose its chance for ecological restoration by 2030, when the ecological deficit reaches −3,497,368 hectares. The most important indicators in the ecological footprint were resource consumption in industries, water consumption in agriculture, and pollution generation from industries and household consumption. Therefore, in a sustainable scenario, the ratio of these indicators was changed based on Alborz’s development policies. In order to achieve ecological balance in the study area, short-, medium-, and long-term scenarios were proposed, as follows: (a) preventing the ecological deficit from reaching the critical threshold by 2030, (b) maintaining the ecological deficit at the same level until 2043, and (c) bringing Alborz to ecological balance (bringing the ecological deficit to zero) by 2072.