IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i18p7541-d412821.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Feasibility of Stochastic Models for Evaluation of Potential Factors for Safety: A Case Study in Southern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Guido

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, Via Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy)

  • Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, Via Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy)

  • Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, Via Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy)

  • Alessandro Vitale

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, Via Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy)

  • Vittorio Astarita

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calabria, Via Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy)

  • Ashkan Shafiee Haghshenas

    (W Booth School of Engineering Practice & Technology, McMaster University, Main St W 1280, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L8, Canada)

Abstract

There is no definite conclusion about what the main variables that play a fundamental role in road safety are. Therefore, the identification of significant factors in road accidents has been a primary concern of the transportation safety research community for many years. Every accident is influenced by multiple variables that, in a given time interval, concur to cause a crash scenario. Information coming from crash reports is very useful in traffic safety research, and several reported crash variables can be analyzed with modern statistical methods to establish whether a classification or clustering of different crash variables is possible. Hence, this study aims to use stochastic techniques for evaluating the role of some variables in accidents with a clustering analysis. The variables that are considered in this paper are light conditions, weekday, average speed, annual average daily traffic, number of vehicles, and type of accident. For this purpose, a combination of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and the genetic algorithm (GA) with the k-means algorithm was used as the machine-learning technique to cluster and evaluate road safety data. According to a multiscale approach, based on a set of data from two years of crash records collected from rural and urban roads in the province of Cosenza, 154 accident cases were accurately investigated and selected for three categories of accident places, including straight, intersection, and other, in each urban and rural network. PSO had a superior performance, with 0.87% accuracy on urban and rural roads in comparison with GA, although the results of GA had an acceptable degree of accuracy. In addition, the results show that, on urban roads, social cost and type of accident had the most and least influence for all accident places, while, on rural roads, although the social cost was the most notable factor for all accident places, the type of accident had the least effect on the straight sections and curves, and the number of vehicles had the least influence at intersections.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Guido & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Alessandro Vitale & Vittorio Astarita & Ashkan Shafiee Haghshenas, 2020. "Feasibility of Stochastic Models for Evaluation of Potential Factors for Safety: A Case Study in Southern Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7541-:d:412821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7541/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7541/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rusul Abduljabbar & Hussein Dia & Sohani Liyanage & Saeed Asadi Bagloee, 2019. "Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Transport: An Overview," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Luan, Jing & Yao, Zhong & Zhao, Futao & Song, Xin, 2019. "A novel method to solve supplier selection problem: Hybrid algorithm of genetic algorithm and ant colony optimization," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 294-309.
    3. Reza Mikaeil & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Zoheir Sedaghati, 2019. "Geotechnical risk evaluation of tunneling projects using optimization techniques (case study: the second part of Emamzade Hashem tunnel)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1099-1113, July.
    4. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
    5. Zhao, Xuejing & Wang, Chen & Su, Jinxia & Wang, Jianzhou, 2019. "Research and application based on the swarm intelligence algorithm and artificial intelligence for wind farm decision system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 681-697.
    6. Linjie Chen & Thibaud Monteiro & Tao Wang & Eric Marcon, 2019. "Design of shared unit-dose drug distribution network using multi-level particle swarm optimization," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 304-317, June.
    7. Bruno Q. Pinto & Celso C. Ribeiro & Isabel Rosseti & Thiago F. Noronha, 2020. "A biased random-key genetic algorithm for routing and wavelength assignment under a sliding scheduled traffic model," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 949-973, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Zong Woo Geem & Tae-Hyung Kim & Reza Mikaeil & Luigi Pugliese & Antonello Troncone, 2021. "Application of Harmony Search Algorithm to Slope Stability Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-12, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Najaf, Pooya & Thill, Jean-Claude & Zhang, Wenjia & Fields, Milton Greg, 2018. "City-level urban form and traffic safety: A structural equation modeling analysis of direct and indirect effects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 257-270.
    2. Buddhavarapu, Prasad & Bansal, Prateek & Prozzi, Jorge A., 2021. "A new spatial count data model with time-varying parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 566-586.
    3. Khondoker Billah & Qasim Adegbite & Hatim O. Sharif & Samer Dessouky & Lauren Simcic, 2021. "Analysis of Intersection Traffic Safety in the City of San Antonio, 2013–2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Zhang, Hong & Nguyen, Hoang & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Pradhan, Biswajeet & Mai, Ngoc-Luan & Vu, Diep-Anh, 2021. "Proposing two novel hybrid intelligence models for forecasting copper price based on extreme learning machine and meta-heuristic algorithms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Tan Yigitcanlar & Kevin C. Desouza & Luke Butler & Farnoosh Roozkhosh, 2020. "Contributions and Risks of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Building Smarter Cities: Insights from a Systematic Review of the Literature," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-38, March.
    6. Bo Yang & Yao Wu & Weihua Zhang & Jie Bao, 2020. "Modeling Collision Probability on Freeway: Accounting for Different Types and Severities in Various LOS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Bae, Bumjoon & Seo, Changbeom, 2022. "Do public-private partnerships help improve road safety? Finding empirical evidence using panel data models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 336-342.
    8. Behrouz Pirouz & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Behzad Pirouz & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Patrizia Piro, 2020. "Development of an Assessment Method for Investigating the Impact of Climate and Urban Parameters in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19: A New Challenge in Sustainable Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    10. Svetlana BAČKALIĆ & Dragan JOVANOVIĆ & Todor BAČKALIĆ & Boško MATOVIĆ & Miloš PLJAKIĆ, 2019. "The Application Of Reliability Reallocation Model In Traffic Safety Analysis On Rural Roads," Transport Problems, Silesian University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, vol. 14(1), pages 115-125, April.
    11. Behrouz Pirouz & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Patrizia Piro, 2020. "Investigating a Serious Challenge in the Sustainable Development Process: Analysis of Confirmed cases of COVID-19 (New Type of Coronavirus) Through a Binary Classification Using Artificial Intelligenc," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Izdebski, Mariusz & Jacyna-Gołda, Ilona & Gołda, Paweł, 2022. "Minimisation of the probability of serious road accidents in the transport of dangerous goods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Dong, Chunjiao & Shao, Chunfu & Clarke, David B. & Nambisan, Shashi S., 2018. "An innovative approach for traffic crash estimation and prediction on accommodating unobserved heterogeneities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 407-428.
    14. Md Tariqul Islam & M. J. Hossain, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence for Hosting Capacity Analysis: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-33, February.
    15. Renfei Wu & Xunjia Zheng & Yongneng Xu & Wei Wu & Guopeng Li & Qing Xu & Zhuming Nie, 2019. "Modified Driving Safety Field Based on Trajectory Prediction Model for Pedestrian–Vehicle Collision," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-15, November.
    16. Giuseppe Guido & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Alessandro Vitale & Vincenzo Gallelli & Vittorio Astarita, 2020. "Development of a Binary Classification Model to Assess Safety in Transportation Systems Using GMDH-Type Neural Network Algorithm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    17. Lv, Jinpeng & Lord, Dominique & Zhang, Yunlong & Chen, Zhi, 2015. "Investigating Peltzman effects in adopting mandatory seat belt laws in the US: Evidence from non-occupant fatalities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 58-64.
    18. Dereli, Mehmet Ali & Erdogan, Saffet, 2017. "A new model for determining the traffic accident black spots using GIS-aided spatial statistical methods," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 106-117.
    19. Ruru Xing & Zimu Li & Xiaoyu Cai & Zepeng Yang & Ningning Zhang & Tao Yang, 2023. "Accident Rate Prediction Model for Urban Expressway Underwater Tunnel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-28, July.
    20. Wang, Hwachyi & De Backer, Hans & Lauwers, Dirk & Chang, S.K.Jason, 2019. "A spatio-temporal mapping to assess bicycle collision risks on high-risk areas (Bridges) - A case study from Taipei (Taiwan)," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 94-109.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7541-:d:412821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.