Energy Consumption Models at Urban Scale to Measure Energy Resilience

Energy resilience can be reached with a secure, sustainable, competitive, and affordable system. In order to achieve energy resilience in the urban environment, urban-scale energy models play a key role in supporting the promotion and identification of effective energy-efficient and low-carbon policies pertaining to buildings. In this work, a dynamic urban-scale energy model, based on an energy balance, has been designed to take into account the local climate conditions and morphological urban-scale parameters. The aim is to present an engineering methodology, applied to clusters of buildings, using the available urban databases. This methodology has been calibrated and optimized through an iterative procedure on 102 residential buildings in a district of the city of Turin (Italy). The results of this work show how a place-based dynamic energy balance methodology can also be sufficiently accurate at an urban scale with an average seasonal relative error of 14%. In particular, to achieve this accuracy, the model has been optimized by correcting the typological and geometrical characteristics of the buildings and the typologies of ventilation and heating system; in addition, the indoor temperatures of the buildings—that were initially estimated as constant—have been correlated to the climatic variables. The proposed model can be applied to other cities utilizing the existing databases or, being an engineering model, can be used to assess the impact of climate change or other scenarios.