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Risk Assessment of Additional Works in Railway Construction Investments Using the Bayes Network

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  • Agnieszka Leśniak

    (Institute of Management in Construction, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Cracow, Poland)

  • Filip Janowiec

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Cracow, Poland)

Abstract

The implementation of railway infrastructure construction projects including sustainable development goals is a complex process characterized by a significant extension of individual investment stages. The need for additional works has a big impact on construction railway projects, representing a risk which is the result of many different factors. During the execution of works, both the design assumptions and the conditions of the project’s implementation can be changed. An attempt to eliminate potential risks is a key element of construction projects. The article proposes a proprietary management method for the risk of additional works in railway projects. A methodology for creating risk management strategies using a standard algorithm that includes risk identification, risk analysis, and risk assessment is presented. The original elements of the work include risk identification followed by analysis using Bayesian networks. Using the example of a scenario of events, it is shown that a well-programmed network can be used to implement risk mitigation methods. Using the network, it is possible to compare different ways to reduce risk, check the effect of reducing the risk factors, and determine a satisfactory level of effects, e.g., increased financial resources as a result of additional works.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnieszka Leśniak & Filip Janowiec, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Additional Works in Railway Construction Investments Using the Bayes Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-15, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5388-:d:271947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Min-Yuan Cheng & Shu-Hua Yeh & Woei-Chyi Chang, 2020. "Multi-Criteria Decision Making of Contractor Selection in Mass Rapid Transit Station Development Using Bayesian Fuzzy Prospect Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-32, June.
    2. Agnieszka Bekisz & Magdalena Kowacka & Michał Kruszyński & Dominika Dudziak-Gajowiak & Grzegorz Debita, 2022. "Risk Management Using Network Thinking Methodology on the Example of Rail Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Skiba, Marta & Mrówczyńska, Maria & Sztubecka, Małgorzata & Bazan-Krzywoszańska, Anna & Kazak, Jan K. & Leśniak, Agnieszka & Janowiec, Filip, 2021. "Probability estimation of the city’s energy efficiency improvement as a result of using the phase change materials in heating networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Matej Špak & Tomáš Mandičák & Marcela Spišáková & Dominik Verčimák, 2023. "Risk Management on Concrete Structures as a Tool for the Control of Construction Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Chaoxun Cai & Shiyu Tian & Yuefeng Shi & Yongjun Chen & Xiaojian Li, 2024. "Influencing Factors Analysis in Railway Engineering Technological Innovation under Complex and Difficult Areas: A System Dynamics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Hui-Ping Tserng & I-Cheng Cho & Chun-Hung Chen & Yu-Fan Liu, 2021. "Developing a Risk Management Process for Infrastructure Projects Using IDEF0," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Changlu Zhang & Jian Zhang & Peng Jiang, 2022. "Assessing the risk of green building materials certification using the back-propagation neural network," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 6925-6952, May.
    8. Huihua Chen & Hujun Li & Yige Wang & Baoquan Cheng, 2020. "A Comprehensive Assessment Approach for Water-Soil Environmental Risk during Railway Construction in Ecological Fragile Region Based on AHP and MEA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    9. Edyta Plebankiewicz & Wiesław Meszek & Krzysztof Zima & Damian Wieczorek, 2019. "Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings under Conditions of Exposure to Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Jan Kowalski & Marzena Lendo-Siwicka & Zdzisław Skutnik & Dorota Mirosław-Świątek, 2024. "Application of the DEMATEL method for quantitative analysis of risk factors for railway investments in Poland," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-20, May.

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