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Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings under Conditions of Exposure to Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Edyta Plebankiewicz

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

  • Wiesław Meszek

    (Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Poznan University of Technology, 60-965 Poznan, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Zima

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

  • Damian Wieczorek

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

The paper discusses issues related to life cycle costs in construction. Life cycle cost is a key element in the assessment of environmental sustainability in construction and it provides a tool for the economic evaluation of alternative sustainability options exhibiting different capital, operating costs or resource usage. The authors reviewed selected models of estimating life cycle costs in construction, drew attention to the complex mathematical models developed so far, namely those which take into account only financial risks and those which involve the possibility of the influence of other risk factors and described the main assumptions accompanying the original model for estimating the whole life costs of buildings, including: reasons for choosing theory of possibility, division and parametrization of input data. The aim of this paper is to confirm the validity of the model structure assumptions adopted by the authors by comparing the originally selected fuzzy approach to calculating life cycle costs taking into account the risk with the probabilistic approach, as well as indicating the domain in which the probabilistic approach will complement the fuzzy approach chosen by the authors. The paper presents a comparison analysis of two approaches used in the authors’ model, a fuzzy and a probabilistic approach, recommended by the ISO standard 15686-5:2008. The authors used the Oracle Crystall Ball software in their simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Edyta Plebankiewicz & Wiesław Meszek & Krzysztof Zima & Damian Wieczorek, 2019. "Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings under Conditions of Exposure to Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:226-:d:302276
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Milan Mirkovic, 2018. "The Impact of Failure Types in Construction Production Systems on Economic Risk Assessments in the Bidding Phase," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-13, November.
    2. Marszal, Anna Joanna & Heiselberg, Per, 2011. "Life cycle cost analysis of a multi-storey residential Net Zero Energy Building in Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5600-5609.
    3. Agnieszka Leśniak & Filip Janowiec, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Additional Works in Railway Construction Investments Using the Bayes Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Lu Aye & Nick Bamford & Bill Charters & Jon Robinson, 2000. "Environmentally sustainable development: a life-cycle costing approach for a commercial office building in Melbourne, Australia," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 927-934.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beata Nowogońska, 2020. "Consequences of Abandoning Renovation: Case Study—Neglected Industrial Heritage Building," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-14, August.

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