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Forecasting the Hydrogen Demand in China: A System Dynamics Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jingsi Huang

    (Department of Economy and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 102206, China)

  • Wei Li

    (Department of Economy and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 102206, China)

  • Xiangyu Wu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100091, China)

Abstract

Many countries, including China, have implemented supporting policies to promote the commercialized application of green hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells. In this study, a system dynamics (SD) model is proposed to study the evolution of hydrogen demand in China from the petroleum refining industry, the synthetic ammonia industry, and the vehicle market. In the model, the impact from the macro-environment, hydrogen fuel supply, and construction of hydrogen facilities is considered to combine in incentives for supporting policies. To further formulate the competitive relationship in the vehicle market, the Lotka–Volterra (LV) approach is adopted. The model is verified using published data from 2003 to 2017. The model is also used to forecast China’s hydrogen demand up to the year of 2030 under three different scenarios. Finally, some forward-looking guidance is provided to policy makers according to the forecasting results.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingsi Huang & Wei Li & Xiangyu Wu, 2022. "Forecasting the Hydrogen Demand in China: A System Dynamics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:2:p:205-:d:721334
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammadi, Amin & Mehrpooya, Mehdi, 2018. "A comprehensive review on coupling different types of electrolyzer to renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 632-655.
    2. Velazquez Abad, Anthony & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Green hydrogen characterisation initiatives: Definitions, standards, guarantees of origin, and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Wan, Yanming & Li, Yanfei & Wang, Di & Yang, Dongxiao & Huang, Tuofu & Zhang, Yan & Zheng, Longye & Liu, Chang, 2024. "International trade of green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol: Opportunities of China's subregions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Liang Ran & Yaling Mao & Tiejiang Yuan & Guofeng Li, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transition Pathway Planning of Regional Power Systems with Electricity-Hydrogen Synergy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.

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