Biophysical and Social Constraints of Restoring Ecosystem Services in the Border Regions of Tibet, China

Ecosystem restoration represents a promising solution for enhancing ecosystem services and environmental sustainability. However, border regions—characterized by ecological fragility and geopolitical complexity—remain underrepresented in ecosystem service and restoration research. To fill this gap, we coupled spatially explicit models (e.g., InVEST and RUSLE) with scenario analysis to quantify the ecosystem service potential that could be achieved in China’s Tibetan borderlands under two interacting agendas: ecological restoration and border-strengthening policies. Restoration feasibility was evaluated through combining local biophysical constraints, economic viability (via restoration-induced carbon gains vs. opportunity costs), operational practicality, and simulated infrastructure expansion. The results showed that per-unit-area ecosystem services in border counties (particularly Medog, Cona, and Zayu) exceed that of interior Tibet by a factor of two to four. Combining these various constraints, approximately 4–17% of the border zone remains cost-effective for grassland or forest restoration. Under low carbon pricing (US$10 t −1 CO 2 ), the carbon revenue generated through restoration is insufficient to offset the opportunity cost of agricultural production, constituting a major constraint. Habitat quality, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration increase modestly when induced by restoration, but a pronounced carbon–water trade-off emerges. Planned infrastructure reduces restoration benefits only slightly, whereas raising the carbon price to about US$50 t −1 CO 2 substantially expands such benefits. These findings highlight both the opportunities and limits of ecosystem restoration in border regions and point to carbon pricing as the key policy lever for unlocking cost-effective restoration.