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Urban Expansion and Carbon Emission Logistic Curve Hypothesis and Its Verification: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

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  • Xueli Zhong

    (Research Center for Transition Development and Rural Revitalization of Resources-Based Cities in China, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
    School of Public Policy, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China)

  • Xiaoshun Li

    (Research Center for Transition Development and Rural Revitalization of Resources-Based Cities in China, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
    School of Public Policy, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
    Observation and Research Station of Jiangsu Jiawang Resource Exhausted Mining Area Land Restoration and Ecological Succession, Ministry of Education, Xuzhou 221000, China)

  • Yongfeng Li

    (Research Center for Transition Development and Rural Revitalization of Resources-Based Cities in China, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
    School of Public Policy, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
    Observation and Research Station of Jiangsu Jiawang Resource Exhausted Mining Area Land Restoration and Ecological Succession, Ministry of Education, Xuzhou 221000, China)

Abstract

Based on the general patterns of urban expansion and carbon emissions at home and abroad, the IPCC carbon emission coefficient estimation method and logistic equation are applied to verify the logistic curve relationship between urban expansion and carbon emissions and to quantitatively measure the upper limit of carbon emissions and the inflection point of carbon emission growth. The results show that (1) the corresponding cumulative carbon emission intensity of foreign (regional) urban expansion gradually decreases during the transition from the primary stage to the saturation stage; (2) urban expansion and carbon emissions in China are characterized by cyclical fluctuations during the 1978–2014 period, and the fluctuations of the two show significant decoupling or divergence after 2014; and (3) urban expansion and carbon emission in Jiangsu province during the 2002–2019 period shows a logistic curve hypothesis relationship, and the cumulative carbon emissions in the built-up areas of Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu show an inflection point when they reach 3128.12 km 2 , 627.25 km 2 and 973.9 km 2 , with the cumulative carbon emission caps of 197.238 × 10 8 t, 14.487 × 10 8 t and 29.289 × 10 8 t, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Xueli Zhong & Xiaoshun Li & Yongfeng Li, 2022. "Urban Expansion and Carbon Emission Logistic Curve Hypothesis and Its Verification: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:7:p:1066-:d:861625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhu, Hui-Ming & You, Wan-Hai & Zeng, Zhao-fa, 2012. "Urbanization and CO2 emissions: A semi-parametric panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 848-850.
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    3. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "How industrialization and urbanization process impacts on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 188-202.
    4. Wang, Yuan & Zhang, Xiang & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2015. "A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 704-709.
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    1. Jinxing Hu & Cuiying Shao & Zhaolong Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Sustainable Regional Development Policy on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Yangtze River Delta of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.

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