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Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case

Author

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  • Gintautas Mozgeris

    (Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, LT-53361 Akademija, 44248 Kauna, Lithuania)

  • Daiva Juknelienė

    (Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, LT-53361 Akademija, 44248 Kauna, Lithuania)

Abstract

Effective management decisions regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be hampered by the lack of scientific tools for modeling future land use change. This study addresses methodological principles for land use development scenario modeling assumed for use in processes of GHG accounting and management. Associated land use policy implications in Lithuania are also discussed. Data on land uses, available from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected for GHG accounting from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the country, as well as freely available geographic information, were tested as an input for modeling land use development in the country. The modeling was implemented using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler. Calibration of the modeling approach using historical land use data indicated that land use types important for GHG management in the LULUCF sector were predicted with an accuracy above 80% during a five-year period into the future, while the prediction accuracy for forest and built-up land was 96% or more. Based on several land management scenarios tested, it was predicted that the LULUCF sector in Lithuania will accumulate CO 2 , with the forest land use type contributing most to CO 2 absorption. Key measures to improve the GHG balance and carbon stock changes were suggested to be the afforestation of abandoned or unused agricultural land and prevention of the conversion of grassland into producing land.

Suggested Citation

  • Gintautas Mozgeris & Daiva Juknelienė, 2021. "Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:4:p:360-:d:528060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daiva Juknelienė & Viktorija Narmontienė & Jolanta Valčiukienė & Gintautas Mozgeris, 2025. "Driving Forces of Agricultural Land Abandonment: A Lithuanian Case," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Daiva Juknelienė & Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė & Jolanta Valčiukienė & Virginija Atkocevičienė & Gintautas Mozgeris, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes in Lithuania," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Mengyuan Guo & Hong Zhang & Yan Cui & Xiaoyu Zhang & Yong Liu, 2022. "Uncovering Stakeholders’ Participation to Better Understand Land Use Change Using Multi-Agent Modeling Approach: An Example of the Coal Mining Area of Shanxi, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, December.

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