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Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate

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  • David C. Frank

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
    Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Jan Esper

    (Johannes Gutenberg University, Becherweg 21, 55099 Mainz, Germany)

  • Christoph C. Raible

    (Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
    Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Ulf Büntgen

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland)

  • Valerie Trouet

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland)

  • Benjamin Stocker

    (Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
    Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Fortunat Joos

    (Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
    Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland)

Abstract

CO2 feedback recalculated Climate warming tends to cause a net release of CO2, which in turn causes an amplification of warming. Estimates of the magnitude of this effect vary widely, leading to a wide range in global warming projections. Recent work suggested that the magnitude of this positive feedback might be about 40 parts per million by volume of CO2 per °C of warming. David Frank and colleagues use three Antarctic ice cores and a suite of climate reconstructions to show that the feedback is likely to be much smaller, with a median of only about 8 p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Frank & Jan Esper & Christoph C. Raible & Ulf Büntgen & Valerie Trouet & Benjamin Stocker & Fortunat Joos, 2010. "Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7280), pages 527-530, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:463:y:2010:i:7280:d:10.1038_nature08769
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08769
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Suo & Bartlett, Paul & Arain, M. Altaf, 2016. "An analysis of global terrestrial carbon, water and energy dynamics using the carbon–nitrogen coupled CLASS-CTEMN+ model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 336(C), pages 36-56.
    2. Jan Altman & Kerstin Treydte & Vit Pejcha & Tomas Cerny & Petr Petrik & Miroslav Srutek & Jong-Suk Song & Valerie Trouet & Jiri Dolezal, 2020. "Tree growth response to recent warming of two endemic species in Northeast Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1345-1364, October.
    3. Gintautas Mozgeris & Daiva Juknelienė, 2021. "Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Daniel Johansson, 2011. "Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 107-134, September.
    5. Manusch, Corina & Bugmann, Harald & Heiri, Caroline & Wolf, Annett, 2012. "Tree mortality in dynamic vegetation models – A key feature for accurately simulating forest properties," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 101-111.
    6. Manusch, Corina & Bugmann, Harald & Wolf, Annett, 2014. "Sensitivity of simulated productivity to soil characteristics and plant water uptake along drought gradients in the Swiss Alps," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 282(C), pages 25-34.

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