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Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors

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  • Man Fu

    () (Florida International University, USA)

  • Prasad V. Bidarkota

    () (Department of Economics, University Park DM 320A, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA)

Abstract

We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts to shareholders. A stochastic discount factor motivated by the consumption-based asset pricing model is utilized. A single macroeconomic factor, namely the output gap determines the non-fundamental component of stock prices. A resulting trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model of stock prices, broad dividends, and the output gap shows evidence of cointegration in the DJIA and S&P 500 index data. Nonetheless, a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&P 500 data during the late 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Man Fu & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2011. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:97-132:d:28375
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wen-Yi Chen & Yia-Wun Liang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2016. "Is the United States in the middle of a healthcare bubble?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(1), pages 99-111, January.
    2. Wen-Yi Chen & Yia-Wun Liang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2016. "Is the United States in the middle of a healthcare bubble?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(1), pages 99-111, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock prices; broad dividends; macro factors; cointegration; periodically collapsing bubbles;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics

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