Review of Prospective Financial Statements: Stationary vs. Forward-Looking Assessments

Prospective financial statements (PFSs) and their examination have become more and more important in recent years as a result of various regulating pressures and market needs. Despite this growing importance, the literature about PFS review appears to be dated and generic and only proposes backward-looking models. This paper examines and integrates the literature, standard setters’ guidelines, and best practices regarding PFS analysis in order to identify the objectives of PFS review and categorize the criteria for its examination. We develop a conceptual and operational framework to achieve the following: (a) we define a structured estimation process in the light of PFS review criteria; (b) we operationalize the estimation process to guide PFS validation. We find that PFS review mainly relies on a consistency analysis between the results of the company analyzed and its drivers, with the aim of identifying reasonable weights of each driver on the forecasts. Our work represents a first attempt to build a method to assess the reasonableness and uncertainty of PFSs under both backward-looking and forward-looking perspectives. It supports auditors and managers in evaluating the likelihood that a company’s plan will ensure business continuity. It also supports external users (banks, analysts, valuers) involved in formulating estimates and corporate valuations based on prospective information.