IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i7p329-d1192677.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

“Decoding” Policy Perspectives: Structural Topic Modeling of European Central Bankers’ Speeches

Author

Listed:
  • Thierry Warin

    (Department of International Business, HEC Montreal, Montréal, QC H3T 2A7, Canada)

  • Aleksandar Stojkov

    (Department of Business Law and Economics, Iustinianus Primus Law Faculty, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, 1000 Skopje, North Macedonia)

Abstract

This research analyzes the speeches and interviews of high-level European Central Bank decision makers from 1997 to 2021 to identify clusters of prominent topics. Transparency is a crucial aspect of modern monetary policy, and public speeches and interviews by central bankers play a vital role in achieving it. Our study employs structural topic modeling to compare the prevalence of topics during the Global Financial Crisis, pandemic crisis, and periods of heightened inflation. Additionally, we explore the impact of central bank independence on official rhetoric.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Warin & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2023. "“Decoding” Policy Perspectives: Structural Topic Modeling of European Central Bankers’ Speeches," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-23, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:7:p:329-:d:1192677
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/7/329/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/7/329/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 548-584, February.
    2. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen & Petra Geraats, 2022. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency: Further Updates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 331-348, March.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    5. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2016. "Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 849-868, October.
    6. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    8. Maqsood, Haider & Mehmood, Irfan & Maqsood, Muazzam & Yasir, Muhammad & Afzal, Sitara & Aadil, Farhan & Selim, Mahmoud Mohamed & Muhammad, Khan, 2020. "A local and global event sentiment based efficient stock exchange forecasting using deep learning," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 432-451.
    9. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2024. "Central bank communication and social media: From silence to Twitter," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 365-388, April.
    3. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Ferrara, Federico Maria & Angino, Siria, 2022. "Does clarity make central banks more engaging? Lessons from ECB communications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. In Do Hwang & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does communication influence executives' opinion of central bank policy?," Working Papers 2020-17, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2023. "Central bank communication and public trust: The case of ECB speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "How Should Central Banks Deal with a Financial Stability Objective? The Evolving Role of Communication as a Policy Instrument," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    9. Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008. "Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
    10. Munday, Tim & Brookes, James, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England working papers 944, Bank of England.
    11. van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Hoogduin, Lex H., 2010. "Optimal central bank transparency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1482-1507, December.
    12. Emna Trabelsi, 2022. "Macroprudential Transparency and Price Stability in Emerging and Developing Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(1), pages 105-129.
    13. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 153-201, March.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, April.
    16. Trabelsi, Emna & Hichri, Walid, 2021. "Central Bank Transparency with (semi-)public Information: Laboratory Experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 195-208, September.
    19. Anna Naszodi & Csaba Csavas & Daniel Felcser, 2016. "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Effect of Transparency of Survey Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 147-192, December.
    20. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    21. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:7:p:329-:d:1192677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.