IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i16p8638-d615072.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Could Explain the Lower COVID-19 Burden in Africa despite Considerable Circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus?

Author

Listed:
  • Richard G. Wamai

    (Department of Cultures, Societies, and Global Studies, Northeastern University, 201 Renaissance Park, 360 Huntington Ave., Boston, MA 02115, USA)

  • Jason L. Hirsch

    (Department of Cultures, Societies, and Global Studies, Northeastern University, 201 Renaissance Park, 360 Huntington Ave., Boston, MA 02115, USA)

  • Wim Van Damme

    (Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium)

  • David Alnwick

    (DUNDEX (Deployable U.N.-Experienced Development Experts), FX68 Belturbet, Ireland)

  • Robert C. Bailey

    (School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA)

  • Stephen Hodgins

    (School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1C9, Canada)

  • Uzma Alam

    (Researcher Africa Institute for Health Policy Foundation, Nairobi 020, Kenya)

  • Mamka Anyona

    (T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA)

Abstract

The differential spread and impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), across regions is a major focus for researchers and policy makers. Africa has attracted tremendous attention, due to predictions of catastrophic impacts that have not yet materialized. Early in the pandemic, the seemingly low African case count was largely attributed to low testing and case reporting. However, there is reason to consider that many African countries attenuated the spread and impacts early on. Factors explaining low spread include early government community-wide actions, population distribution, social contacts, and ecology of human habitation. While recent data from seroprevalence studies posit more extensive circulation of the virus, continuing low COVID-19 burden may be explained by the demographic pyramid, prevalence of pre-existing conditions, trained immunity, genetics, and broader sociocultural dynamics. Though all these prongs contribute to the observed profile of COVID-19 in Africa, some provide stronger evidence than others. This review is important to expand what is known about the differential impacts of pandemics, enhancing scientific understanding and gearing appropriate public health responses. Furthermore, it highlights potential lessons to draw from Africa for global health on assumptions regarding deadly viral pandemics, given its long experience with infectious diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Wamai & Jason L. Hirsch & Wim Van Damme & David Alnwick & Robert C. Bailey & Stephen Hodgins & Uzma Alam & Mamka Anyona, 2021. "What Could Explain the Lower COVID-19 Burden in Africa despite Considerable Circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8638-:d:615072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/16/8638/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/16/8638/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ewen Callaway, 2021. "Delta coronavirus variant: scientists brace for impact," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7865), pages 17-18, July.
    2. Martín Caruso Bloeck & Sebastian Galiani & Pablo Ibarrarán, 2019. "Long-Term Care in Latin America and the Caribbean: Theory and Policy Considerations," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2019), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Juliet Bedford & Jeremy Farrar & Chikwe Ihekweazu & Gagandeep Kang & Marion Koopmans & John Nkengasong, 2019. "A new twenty-first century science for effective epidemic response," Nature, Nature, vol. 575(7781), pages 130-136, November.
    4. Jethro Banda & Albert Dube & Sarah Brumfield & Abena Amoah & Amelia Crampin & Georges Reniers & Stephane Helleringer, 2021. "Knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(20), pages 459-480.
    5. Andrew T. Levin & William P. Hanage & Nana Owusu-Boaitey & Kensington B. Cochran & Seamus P. Walsh & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020. "Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 27597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cooper, R. & Rotimi, C. & Ataman, S. & McGee, D. & Osotimehin, B. & Kadiri, S. & Muna, W. & Kingue, S. & Fraser, H. & Forrester, T. & Bennett, F. & Wilks, R., 1997. "The prevalence of hypertension in seven populations of West African origin," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(2), pages 160-168.
    7. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Lifu & Zheng, Bo & Ma, Jiahao & Zhang, Jiu & Xiong, Long & Jiang, Xiongfei & Li, Jiangcheng, 2022. "Empirical study and model simulation of global stock market dynamics during COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Perrault & Marie Charpignon & Jonathan Gruber & Milind Tambe & Maimuna Majumder, 2020. "Designing Efficient Contact Tracing Through Risk-Based Quarantining," NBER Working Papers 28135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rocha Filho, T.M. & Moret, M.A. & Chow, C.C. & Phillips, J.C. & Cordeiro, A.J.A. & Scorza, F.A. & Almeida, A.-C.G. & Mendes, J.F.F., 2021. "A data-driven model for COVID-19 pandemic – Evolution of the attack rate and prognosis for Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Eunha Shim, 2021. "Projecting the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants and the Vaccination Program on the Fourth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-11, July.
    4. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Emanuele Amodio & Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio, 2023. "School‐age vaccination, school openings and Covid‐19 diffusion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1084-1100, May.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    7. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    8. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Kuchler, Theresa & Russel, Dominic & Stroebel, Johannes, 2022. "JUE Insight: The geographic spread of COVID-19 correlates with the structure of social networks as measured by Facebook," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Fattahi, Mohammad & Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil & Kannan, Devika & Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 192-206.
    11. John M Drake & Tobias S Brett & Shiyang Chen & Bogdan I Epureanu & Matthew J Ferrari & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Eamon B O’Dea & Suzanne M O’Regan & Andrew W Park & Pejman Rohani, 2019. "The statistics of epidemic transitions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, May.
    12. S. M. Niaz Arifin & Christoph Zimmer & Caroline Trotter & Anaïs Colombini & Fati Sidikou & F. Marc LaForce & Ted Cohen & Reza Yaesoubi, 2019. "Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 39(5), pages 553-567, July.
    13. Anna Scherbina, 2021. "Assessing the Optimality of a COVID Lockdown in the United States," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-201, July.
    14. Ewa Małgorzata Szepietowska & Ewa Zawadzka & Sara Filipiak, 2022. "Symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and the Sense of Gains and Losses during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An International Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-19, March.
    15. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    16. Mirjam Kretzschmar & Rafael T Mikolajczyk, 2009. "Contact Profiles in Eight European Countries and Implications for Modelling the Spread of Airborne Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(6), pages 1-8, June.
    17. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2022. "A macroeconomic model of an epidemic with silent transmission and endogenous self‐isolation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 581-625, February.
    18. Elisabetta De Cao & Alessia Melegaro & Rogier Klok & Maarten Postma, 2014. "Optimising Assessments of the Epidemiological Impact in the Netherlands of Paediatric Immunisation with 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Using Dynamic Transmission Modelling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(4), pages 1-9, April.
    19. Gillis, Melissa & Urban, Ryley & Saif, Ahmed & Kamal, Noreen & Murphy, Matthew, 2021. "A simulation–optimization framework for optimizing response strategies to epidemics," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    20. Richard Pitman & David Fisman & Gregory S. Zaric & Maarten Postma & Mirjam Kretzschmar & John Edmunds & Marc Brisson, 2012. "Dynamic Transmission Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(5), pages 712-721, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8638-:d:615072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.