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Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies

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  • Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson

    (Department of Statistics, Fluminense Federal University, Niterói 24210-201, RJ, Brazil
    Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change–Rede Clima, São José dos Campos 12227-010 SP, Brazil)

  • Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira

    (Nacional School of Public Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, RJ, Brazil)

  • Rochelle Schneider

    (Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E7HT, UK
    Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E7HT, UK
    Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading RG29AX, UK)

  • Antonio Gasparrini

    (Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E7HT, UK
    Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E7HT, UK
    The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E7HT, UK)

  • Sandra de Souza Hacon

    (Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change–Rede Clima, São José dos Campos 12227-010 SP, Brazil
    Nacional School of Public Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, RJ, Brazil)

Abstract

Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were daily counts of deaths due to respiratory diseases in the elderly aged 60 or more. The exposure variable was the daily mean temperature from Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis. The association was estimated from a two-stage time series analysis method. We also calculated deaths attributable to heat and cold. The pooled exposure–response curve presented a J-shaped format. The exposure to extreme heat increased the risk of mortality by 27% (95% CI: 15–39%), while the exposure to extreme cold increased the risk of mortality by 16% (95% CI: 8–24%). The heterogeneity between cities was explained by city-specific mean temperature and temperature range. The fractions of deaths attributable to cold and heat were 4.7% (95% CI: 2.94–6.17%) and 2.8% (95% CI: 1.45–3.95%), respectively. Our results show a significant impact of non-optimal temperature on the respiratory health of elderlies living in Brazil. It may support proactive action implementation in cities that have critical temperature variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson & Beatriz Fátima Alves de Oliveira & Rochelle Schneider & Antonio Gasparrini & Sandra de Souza Hacon, 2021. "Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:11:p:5550-:d:560109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    2. Roger D. Peng & Francesca Dominici & Thomas A. Louis, 2006. "Model choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(2), pages 179-203, March.
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    2. Kyriaki Psistaki & Ioannis M. Dokas & Anastasia K. Paschalidou, 2022. "The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, December.

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