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Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

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  • Tao Liu

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Zhoupeng Ren

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yonghui Zhang

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Baixiang Feng

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Hualiang Lin

    (School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China)

  • Jianpeng Xiao

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Weilin Zeng

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Xing Li

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Zhihao Li

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Shannon Rutherford

    (School of Medicine, Griffith University, Brisbane QLD 4111, Australia)

  • Yanjun Xu

    (Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

  • Shao Lin

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA)

  • Philip C. Nasca

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA)

  • Yaodong Du

    (Guangdong Provincial Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China)

  • Jinfeng Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Cunrui Huang

    (School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China)

  • Peng Jia

    (Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands
    International Initiative on Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiology (ISLE), 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands)

  • Wenjun Ma

    (Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China)

Abstract

(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost ( YLLs ) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs . (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Yonghui Zhang & Baixiang Feng & Hualiang Lin & Jianpeng Xiao & Weilin Zeng & Xing Li & Zhihao Li & Shannon Rutherford & Yanjun Xu & Shao Lin & Philip C. Nasca & Yaodong Du & J, 2019. "Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:3:p:376-:d:201723
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lu Wang, 2023. "Mediating Effect of Heat Waves between Ecosystem Services and Heat-Related Mortality of Characteristic Populations: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, February.

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