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Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea

Author

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  • Jae Young Lee

    (Environmental and Safety Engineering Department, Ajou University, Suwon 16499, Korea)

  • Martin Röösli

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
    University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland)

  • Martina S. Ragettli

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
    University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland)

Abstract

This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on the cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed the association of eight temperature metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum temperature during daytime, minimum temperature during nighttime, and mean, maximum, and minimum apparent temperature) with mortality and performed the cross-validation method to select the best model in selected cities of Switzerland and South Korea from May to September of 1995–2015. It was observed that HAF estimated using different metrics varied by 2.69–4.09% in eight cities of Switzerland and by 0.61–0.90% in six cities of South Korea. Based on the cross-validation method, mean temperature was estimated to be the best metric, and it revealed that the HAF of Switzerland and South Korea were 3.29% and 0.72%, respectively. Furthermore, estimates of HAF were improved by selecting the best city-specific model for each city, that is, 3.34% for Switzerland and 0.78% for South Korea. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to observe the uncertainty of HAF estimation originated from the selection of temperature metric and to present the HAF estimation based on the cross-validation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jae Young Lee & Martin Röösli & Martina S. Ragettli, 2021. "Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-9, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:12:p:6413-:d:574447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tiantian Li & Radley M. Horton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 717-721, August.
    2. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Jae Young Lee, 2022. "A Subgroup Method of Projecting Future Vulnerability and Adaptation to Extreme Heat," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-9, December.

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