IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v14y2017i12p1562-d122728.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

Author

Listed:
  • Aleš Urban

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 4 14131 Prague, Czech Republic
    Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 2 12843 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Hana Hanzlíková

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 4 14131 Prague, Czech Republic
    Institute of Geophysics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 4 14131 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Jan Kyselý

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 4 14131 Prague, Czech Republic
    Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 6 16521 Prague, Czech Republic
    Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Eva Plavcová

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 4 14131 Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country’s entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0–64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleš Urban & Hana Hanzlíková & Jan Kyselý & Eva Plavcová, 2017. "Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:12:p:1562-:d:122728
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/12/1562/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/12/1562/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiantian Li & Radley M. Horton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 717-721, August.
    2. Aleš Urban & Katrin Burkart & Jan Kyselý & Christian Schuster & Eva Plavcová & Hana Hanzlíková & Petr Štěpánek & Tobia Lakes, 2016. "Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Dianne Lowe & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2011. "Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Jan Kyselý & Eva Plavcová, 2012. "Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2009: adaptation to climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 437-453, July.
    5. Aleš Urban & Jan Kyselý, 2014. "Comparison of UTCI with Other Thermal Indices in the Assessment of Heat and Cold Effects on Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    7. Francesca K. De’ Donato & Michela Leone & Matteo Scortichini & Manuela De Sario & Klea Katsouyanni & Timo Lanki & Xavier Basagaña & Ferran Ballester & Christofer Åström & Anna Paldy & Mathilde Pascal , 2015. "Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Liotta & Maria Chiara Inzerilli & Leonardo Palombi & Olga Madaro & Stefano Orlando & Paola Scarcella & Daniela Betti & Maria Cristina Marazzi, 2018. "Social Interventions to Prevent Heat-Related Mortality in the Older Adult in Rome, Italy: A Quasi-Experimental Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Marszelewski Michał & Piasecki Adam, 2021. "Legal and water management policy during climate warming in Poland," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 54(54), pages 63-75, December.
    3. John Nairn & Bertram Ostendorf & Peng Bi, 2018. "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
    4. Jongchul Park & Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi, 2019. "Analysis of Mortality Change Rate from Temperature in Summer by Age, Occupation, Household Type, and Chronic Diseases in 229 Korean Municipalities from 2007–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Mo Wang & Zijing Chen & Dongqing Zhang & Ming Liu & Haojun Yuan & Biyi Chen & Qiuyi Rao & Shiqi Zhou & Yuankai Wang & Jianjun Li & Chengliang Fan & Soon Keat Tan, 2024. "Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:plo:pone00:0180369 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joris Adriaan Frank Van Loenhout & Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes & Debarati Guha-Sapir, 2016. "Stakeholders’ Perception on National Heatwave Plans and Their Local Implementation in Belgium and The Netherlands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Fariha Hasan & Shayan Marsia & Kajal Patel & Priyanka Agrawal & Junaid Abdul Razzak, 2021. "Effective Community-Based Interventions for the Prevention and Management of Heat-Related Illnesses: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Aleš Urban & Katrin Burkart & Jan Kyselý & Christian Schuster & Eva Plavcová & Hana Hanzlíková & Petr Štěpánek & Tobia Lakes, 2016. "Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Francesca K. De’ Donato & Michela Leone & Matteo Scortichini & Manuela De Sario & Klea Katsouyanni & Timo Lanki & Xavier Basagaña & Ferran Ballester & Christofer Åström & Anna Paldy & Mathilde Pascal , 2015. "Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Christofer Åström & Daniel Oudin Åström & Camilla Andersson & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2017. "Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    7. Tao Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Yonghui Zhang & Baixiang Feng & Hualiang Lin & Jianpeng Xiao & Weilin Zeng & Xing Li & Zhihao Li & Shannon Rutherford & Yanjun Xu & Shao Lin & Philip C. Nasca & Yaodong Du & J, 2019. "Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Misun Kang & Kyu Rang Kim & Ju-Young Shin, 2020. "Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, April.
    9. Tahseen Ajaz & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2018. "Changing Climate Patterns and Women Health: An Empirical Analysis of District Rawalpindi Pakistan," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(4), pages 320-342, December.
    10. Vladimir Kendrovski & Michela Baccini & Gerardo Sanchez Martinez & Tanja Wolf & Elizabet Paunovic & Bettina Menne, 2017. "Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Rebecca M. Garland & Mamopeli Matooane & Francois A. Engelbrecht & Mary-Jane M. Bopape & Willem A. Landman & Mogesh Naidoo & Jacobus Van der Merwe & Caradee Y. Wright, 2015. "Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-28, October.
    12. Monika Nitschke & Antoinette Krackowizer & Alana L. Hansen & Peng Bi & Graeme R. Tucker, 2017. "Heat Health Messages: A Randomized Controlled Trial of a Preventative Messages Tool in the Older Population of South Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-10, August.
    13. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    14. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Mare Lõhmus, 2018. "Possible Biological Mechanisms Linking Mental Health and Heat—A Contemplative Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, July.
    16. Jae Young Lee & Martin Röösli & Martina S. Ragettli, 2021. "Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-9, June.
    17. Tjaša Pogačar & Zala Žnidaršič & Lučka Kajfež Bogataj & Zalika Črepinšek, 2020. "Steps Towards Comprehensive Heat Communication in the Frame of a Heat Health Warning System in Slovenia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-16, August.
    18. Matteo Scortichini & Manuela De Sario & Francesca K. De’Donato & Marina Davoli & Paola Michelozzi & Massimo Stafoggia, 2018. "Short-Term Effects of Heat on Mortality and Effect Modification by Air Pollution in 25 Italian Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-12, August.
    19. Tjaša Pogačar & Zala Žnidaršič & Lučka Kajfež Bogataj & Andreas D. Flouris & Konstantina Poulianiti & Zalika Črepinšek, 2019. "Heat Waves Occurrence and Outdoor Workers’ Self-assessment of Heat Stress in Slovenia and Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-12, February.
    20. Halkos, George E & Aslanidis, Panagiotis-Stavros & Landis, Conrad & Papadaki, Lydia & Koundouri, Phoebe, 2024. "A review on primary and cascading hazards by exploring individuals’ willingness-to-pay for urban sustainability policies," MPRA Paper 122262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Weihua Dong & Zhao Liu & Lijie Zhang & Qiuhong Tang & Hua Liao & Xian'en Li, 2014. "Assessing Heat Health Risk for Sustainability in Beijing’s Urban Heat Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-24, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:12:p:1562-:d:122728. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.