IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v12y2015i6p5918-5933d50214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cardiovascular Mortality Associated with Low and High Temperatures: Determinants of Inter-Region Vulnerability in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xunfeng Yang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lianfa Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road, Beijing 100101, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jinfeng Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road, Beijing 100101, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jixia Huang

    (Precision Forestry Key Laboratory of Beijing, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Shijun Lu

    (National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China)

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to estimate the effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 26 regions in the south and west of China from 2008 to 2011, and to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors contributing to such inter-region variation in the temperature effect. A separate Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) was fitted to estimate percent changes in cardiovascular mortality at low and high temperatures on a daily basis for each region. The model used the smooth functions to model the nonlinear effects of temperature and humidity and to control for the seasonal factor using the calendar time variable. Given variation in the magnitude of the temperature effect on cardiovascular mortality, we employed a Bayesian network (BN) to identify potential region-specific socioeconomic and demographic factors that may explain the variation. In most regions, an increasing trend in high or low temperature was associated with an increase in cardiovascular mortality, with variation in the magnitude of the temperature effects across regions. Three factors, including per capita years of education (as an indicator of economic status), percentage of the population over 65 years of age and percentage of women had direct impact on cold-related cardiovascular mortality. Number of hospital beds (as an indicator of the availability of medical resources), percentage of population engaged in industrial occupations, and percentage of women showed direct impact on heat-related cardiovascular mortality. Due to the socioeconomic and demographic inequalities between regions, the development of customized prevention and adaptation programs to address the low/high temperatures in vulnerable regions should be prioritized.

Suggested Citation

  • Xunfeng Yang & Lianfa Li & Jinfeng Wang & Jixia Huang & Shijun Lu, 2015. "Cardiovascular Mortality Associated with Low and High Temperatures: Determinants of Inter-Region Vulnerability in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:6:p:5918-5933:d:50214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/5918/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/5918/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jixia Huang & Jinfeng Wang & Weiwei Yu, 2014. "The Lag Effects and Vulnerabilities of Temperature Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Subtropical Climate Zone in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
    3. Roger D. Peng & Francesca Dominici & Thomas A. Louis, 2006. "Model choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(2), pages 179-203, March.
    4. Carmen Iñiguez & Ferran Ballester & Juan Ferrandiz & Santiago Pérez-Hoyos & Marc Sáez & Antonio López, 2010. "Relation between Temperature and Mortality in Thirteen Spanish Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Rochelle Green & Rupa Basu & Brian Malig & Rachel Broadwin & Janice Kim & Bart Ostro, 2010. "The effect of temperature on hospital admissions in nine California counties," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 55(2), pages 113-121, April.
    6. Chun-Quan Ou & Yun-Feng Song & Jun Yang & Patsy Yuen-Kwan Chau & Lin Yang & Ping-Yan Chen & Chit-Ming Wong, 2013. "Excess Winter Mortality and Cold Temperatures in a Subtropical City, Guangzhou, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-1, October.
    7. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    8. Zhihong Jiang & Jie Song & Laurent Li & Weilin Chen & Zhifu Wang & Ji Wang, 2012. "Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 385-401, January.
    9. Francesca Dominici & Aidan M.C. Dermott & Trevor J. Hastie, 2004. "Improved Semiparametric Time Series Models of Air Pollution and Mortality," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 938-948, December.
    10. Lianfa Li & Jinfeng Wang & Hareton Leung & Chengsheng Jiang, 2010. "Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(7), pages 1157-1175, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xuemei Su & Yibin Cheng & Yu Wang & Yue Liu & Na Li & Yonghong Li & Xiaoyuan Yao, 2019. "Regional Temperature-Sensitive Diseases and Attributable Fractions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Tran Ngoc Dang & Yasushi Honda & Dung Van Do & Anh Lan Thi Pham & Cordia Chu & Cunrui Huang & Dung Phung, 2019. "Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Mortality and Hospitalization in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-12, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donna Green & Hilary Bambrick & Peter Tait & James Goldie & Rosalie Schultz & Leanne Webb & Lisa Alexander & Andrew Pitman, 2015. "Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Zhiwei Xu & Perry E. Sheffield & Wenbiao Hu & Hong Su & Weiwei Yu & Xin Qi & Shilu Tong, 2012. "Climate Change and Children’s Health—A Call for Research on What Works to Protect Children," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Adam A. Szpiro & Lianne Sheppard & Sara D. Adar & Joel D. Kaufman, 2014. "Estimating acute air pollution health effects from cohort study data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 164-174, March.
    4. Leigh Fisher & Jon Wakefield & Cici Bauer & Steve Self, 2017. "Time series modeling of pathogen-specific disease probabilities with subsampled data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 283-293, March.
    5. Chi Wang & Giovanni Parmigiani & Francesca Dominici, 2012. "Bayesian Effect Estimation Accounting for Adjustment Uncertainty," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 661-671, September.
    6. Yu Liu & Yong Guo & Changbing Wang & Weidong Li & Jinhua Lu & Songying Shen & Huimin Xia & Jianrong He & Xiu Qiu, 2015. "Association between Temperature Change and Outpatient Visits for Respiratory Tract Infections among Children in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Robert E. Davis & Wendy M. Novicoff, 2018. "The Impact of Heat Waves on Emergency Department Admissions in Charlottesville, Virginia, U.S.A," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, July.
    8. Kaila-Lea Clarke & Peter Berry, 2012. "From theory to practice: a Canadian case study of the utility of climate change adaptation frameworks to address health impacts," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 57(1), pages 167-174, February.
    9. Carmen Iñiguez & Ferran Ballester & Juan Ferrandiz & Santiago Pérez-Hoyos & Marc Sáez & Antonio López, 2010. "Relation between Temperature and Mortality in Thirteen Spanish Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-15, August.
    10. Joshua P. Keller & Adam A. Szpiro, 2020. "Selecting a scale for spatial confounding adjustment," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1121-1143, June.
    11. Tao Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Yonghui Zhang & Baixiang Feng & Hualiang Lin & Jianpeng Xiao & Weilin Zeng & Xing Li & Zhihao Li & Shannon Rutherford & Yanjun Xu & Shao Lin & Philip C. Nasca & Yaodong Du & J, 2019. "Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Tahseen Ajaz & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2018. "Changing Climate Patterns and Women Health: An Empirical Analysis of District Rawalpindi Pakistan," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(4), pages 320-342, December.
    13. Tong Liu & Guojun He & Alexis Lau, 2018. "Avoidance behavior against air pollution: evidence from online search indices for anti-PM2.5 masks and air filters in Chinese cities," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(2), pages 325-363, April.
    14. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    15. Denis Maragno & Michele Dalla Fontana & Francesco Musco, 2020. "Mapping Heat Stress Vulnerability and Risk Assessment at the Neighborhood Scale to Drive Urban Adaptation Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Bing Li & Zhifeng Liu & Ying Nan & Shengnan Li & Yanmin Yang, 2018. "Comparative Analysis of Urban Heat Island Intensities in Chinese, Russian, and DPRK Regions across the Transnational Urban Agglomeration of the Tumen River in Northeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    18. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    19. Robert J. R. Elliott & Ingmar Schumacher & Cees Withagen, 2020. "Suggestions for a Covid-19 Post-Pandemic Research Agenda in Environmental Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1187-1213, August.
    20. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:6:p:5918-5933:d:50214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.