IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v15y2018i6p1270-d152745.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Areas with High Hazard Potential for Autochthonous Transmission of Aedes albopictus -Associated Arboviruses in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie Margarete Thomas

    (Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Nils Benjamin Tjaden

    (Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Christina Frank

    (Robert Koch Institute, 13353 Berlin, Germany)

  • Anja Jaeschke

    (Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany)

  • Lukas Zipfel

    (Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany)

  • Christiane Wagner-Wiening

    (Baden-Württemberg Health Authority, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Mirko Faber

    (Robert Koch Institute, 13353 Berlin, Germany)

  • Carl Beierkuhnlein

    (Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany)

  • Klaus Stark

    (Robert Koch Institute, 13353 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

The intensity and extent of transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have increased markedly over the last decades. Autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya by Aedes albopictus has been recorded in Southern Europe where the invasive mosquito was already established and viraemic travelers had imported the virus. Ae. albopictus populations are spreading northward into Germany. Here, we model the current and future climatically suitable regions for Ae. albopictus establishment in Germany, using climate data of spatially high resolution. To highlight areas where vectors and viraemic travellers are most likely to come into contact, reported dengue and chikungunya incidences are integrated at the county level. German cities with the highest likelihood of autochthonous transmission of Aedes albopictus -borne arboviruses are currently located in the western parts of the country: Freiburg im Breisgau, Speyer, and Karlsruhe, affecting about 0.5 million people. In addition, 8.8 million people live in regions considered to show elevated hazard potential assuming further spread of the mosquito: Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine, Lake Constance regions), southern parts of Hesse, and North Rhine-Westphalia (Lower Rhine). Overall, a more targeted and thus cost-efficient implementation of vector control measures and health surveillance will be supported by the detailed maps provided here.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Margarete Thomas & Nils Benjamin Tjaden & Christina Frank & Anja Jaeschke & Lukas Zipfel & Christiane Wagner-Wiening & Mirko Faber & Carl Beierkuhnlein & Klaus Stark, 2018. "Areas with High Hazard Potential for Autochthonous Transmission of Aedes albopictus -Associated Arboviruses in Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:6:p:1270-:d:152745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/6/1270/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/6/1270/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
    2. VanDerWal, Jeremy & Shoo, Luke P. & Graham, Catherine & Williams, Stephen E., 2009. "Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: How far should you stray from what you know?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(4), pages 589-594.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Moutinho & Jorge Rocha & Alberto Gomes & Bernardo Gomes & Ana Isabel Ribeiro, 2022. "Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alsamadisi, Adam G. & Tran, Liem T. & Papeş, Monica, 2020. "Employing inferences across scales: Integrating spatial data with different resolutions to enhance Maxent models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
    2. Sakirul Khan & Sheikh Mohammad Fazle Akbar & Takaaki Yahiro & Mamun Al Mahtab & Kazunori Kimitsuki & Takehiro Hashimoto & Akira Nishizono, 2022. "Dengue Infections during COVID-19 Period: Reflection of Reality or Elusive Data Due to Effect of Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Shengzhang Dong & George Dimopoulos, 2023. "Aedes aegypti Argonaute 2 controls arbovirus infection and host mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Zhao, Xinxing & Li, Kainan & Ang, Candice Ke En & Cheong, Kang Hao, 2023. "A deep learning based hybrid architecture for weekly dengue incidences forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Eunha Shim, 2017. "Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Hone-Jay Chu & Bo-Cheng Lin & Ming-Run Yu & Ta-Chien Chan, 2016. "Minimizing Spatial Variability of Healthcare Spatial Accessibility—The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Liang, Wanwan & Papeş, Monica & Tran, Liem & Grant, Jerome & Washington-Allen, Robert & Stewart, Scott & Wiggins, Gregory, 2018. "The effect of pseudo-absence selection method on transferability of species distribution models in the context of non-adaptive niche shift," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Cheng-Te Lin & Yu-Sheng Huang & Lu-Wen Liao & Chung-Te Ting, 2020. "Measuring Consumer Willingness to Pay to Reduce Health Risks of Contracting Dengue Fever," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Amy R. Krystosik & Andrew Curtis & A. Desiree LaBeaud & Diana M. Dávalos & Robinson Pacheco & Paola Buritica & Álvaro A. Álvarez & Madhav P. Bhatta & Jorge Humberto Rojas Palacios & Mark A. James, 2018. "Neighborhood Violence Impacts Disease Control and Surveillance: Case Study of Cali, Colombia from 2014 to 2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb & Tatiana Rivera Ramírez & Axel Kroeger & Ernesto Gozzer & Silvia Runge-Ranzinger, 2021. "Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, September.
    11. Jiang, Dong & Wang, Qian & Ding, Fangyu & Fu, Jingying & Hao, Mengmeng, 2019. "Potential marginal land resources of cassava worldwide: A data-driven analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 167-173.
    12. Gerhart Knerer & Christine S M Currie & Sally C Brailsford, 2020. "The economic impact and cost-effectiveness of combined vector-control and dengue vaccination strategies in Thailand: results from a dynamic transmission model," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-32, October.
    13. Amaro, George & Fidelis, Elisangela Gomes & da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira & Marchioro, Cesar Augusto, 2023. "Effect of study area extent on the potential distribution of Species: A case study with models for Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    14. Benjamin Lopez-Jimena & Michaël Bekaert & Mohammed Bakheit & Sieghard Frischmann & Pranav Patel & Etienne Simon-Loriere & Louis Lambrechts & Veasna Duong & Philippe Dussart & Graham Harold & Cheikh Fa, 2018. "Development and validation of four one-step real-time RT-LAMP assays for specific detection of each dengue virus serotype," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, May.
    15. Christian König & Patrick Weigelt & Julian Schrader & Amanda Taylor & Jens Kattge & Holger Kreft, 2019. "Biodiversity data integration—the significance of data resolution and domain," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Marchetto, Elisa & Da Re, Daniele & Tordoni, Enrico & Bazzichetto, Manuele & Zannini, Piero & Celebrin, Simone & Chieffallo, Ludovico & Malavasi, Marco & Rocchini, Duccio, 2023. "Testing the effect of sample prevalence and sampling methods on probability- and favourability-based SDMs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
    17. Adriana Zubieta-Zavala & Guillermo Salinas-Escudero & Adrian Ramírez-Chávez & Luis García-Valladares & Malaquias López-Cervantes & Juan Guillermo López Yescas & Luis Durán-Arenas, 2016. "Calculation of the Average Cost per Case of Dengue Fever in Mexico Using a Micro-Costing Approach," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    18. Fazli Wahid & Dr.Sajjad Ali & Jan Muhammad, 2021. "Effective Sources of Information in Winter Seasonal Diseases: The Perception of Residents of District Buner, KP," Journal of Media & Communication (JMC), Ilma University, Faculty of Media & Design, vol. 1(2), pages 215-229.
    19. Maria Glória Teixeira & Enny S Paixão & Maria da Conceição N Costa & Rivaldo V Cunha & Luciano Pamplona & Juarez P Dias & Camila A Figueiredo & Maria Aparecida A Figueiredo & Ronald Blanton & Vanessa , 2015. "Arterial Hypertension and Skin Allergy Are Risk Factors for Progression from Dengue to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: A Case Control Study," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-8, May.
    20. Maneerat, Somsakun & Daudé, Eric, 2016. "A spatial agent-based simulation model of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti to explore its population dynamics in urban areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 66-78.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:6:p:1270-:d:152745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.