IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v15y2018i5p952-d145546.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Thandi Kapwata

    (Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa
    Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa)

  • Michael T. Gebreslasie

    (School of Agriculture, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

  • Angela Mathee

    (Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa
    Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa)

  • Caradee Yael Wright

    (Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
    Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0084, South Africa)

Abstract

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4–6 °C for the period 2071–2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088–2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Thandi Kapwata & Michael T. Gebreslasie & Angela Mathee & Caradee Yael Wright, 2018. "Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:5:p:952-:d:145546
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/5/952/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/5/952/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & R. Knutti, 2013. "Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(12), pages 1033-1038, December.
    2. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
    3. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
    4. Rebecca M. Garland & Mamopeli Matooane & Francois A. Engelbrecht & Mary-Jane M. Bopape & Willem A. Landman & Mogesh Naidoo & Jacobus Van der Merwe & Caradee Y. Wright, 2015. "Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-28, October.
    5. Shalin Bidassey-Manilal & Caradee Y. Wright & Jacobus C. Engelbrecht & Patricia N. Albers & Rebecca M. Garland & Mamopeli Matooane, 2016. "Students’ Perceived Heat-Health Symptoms Increased with Warmer Classroom Temperatures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alice McGushin & Yassen Tcholakov & Shakoor Hajat, 2018. "Climate Change and Human Health: Health Impacts of Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-4, May.
    2. Caradee Y. Wright & Angela Mathee & Cheryl Goldstone & Natasha Naidoo & Thandi Kapwata & Bianca Wernecke & Zamantimande Kunene & Danielle A. Millar, 2023. "Developing a Healthy Environment Assessment Tool (HEAT) to Address Heat-Health Vulnerability in South African Towns in a Warming World," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Matthew F. Chersich & Caradee Y. Wright & Francois Venter & Helen Rees & Fiona Scorgie & Barend Erasmus, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Hugo Pedder & Thandi Kapwata & Guy Howard & Rajen N. Naidoo & Zamantimande Kunene & Richard W. Morris & Angela Mathee & Caradee Y. Wright, 2021. "Lagged Association between Climate Variables and Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-16, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shalin Bidassey-Manilal & Caradee Yael Wright & Thandi Kapwata & Joyce Shirinde, 2020. "A Study Protocol to Determine Heat-Related Health Impacts among Primary Schoolchildren in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-12, July.
    2. Caradee Y. Wright & D. Jean du Preez & Danielle A. Millar & Mary Norval, 2020. "The Epidemiology of Skin Cancer and Public Health Strategies for Its Prevention in Southern Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    4. Yang, Jiachuan & Wang, Zhi-Hua & Kaloush, Kamil E., 2015. "Environmental impacts of reflective materials: Is high albedo a ‘silver bullet’ for mitigating urban heat island?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 830-843.
    5. Jiyun Jung & Jae Young Lee & Hyewon Lee & Ho Kim, 2020. "Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM 10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-10, April.
    6. Julie M. Carter & Patricia D. Koman & Lorraine Cameron & Aaron Ferguson & Patrick Jacuzzo & Jason Duvall, 2021. "Assessing perceptions and priorities for health impacts of climate change within local Michigan health departments," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 595-609, December.
    7. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    8. Denis Maragno & Michele Dalla Fontana & Francesco Musco, 2020. "Mapping Heat Stress Vulnerability and Risk Assessment at the Neighborhood Scale to Drive Urban Adaptation Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Bing Li & Zhifeng Liu & Ying Nan & Shengnan Li & Yanmin Yang, 2018. "Comparative Analysis of Urban Heat Island Intensities in Chinese, Russian, and DPRK Regions across the Transnational Urban Agglomeration of the Tumen River in Northeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Pujun Liang & Wei Xu & Yunjia Ma & Xiujuan Zhao & Lianjie Qin, 2017. "Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    12. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    13. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    15. Louise Bedsworth, 2012. "California’s local health agencies and the state’s climate adaptation strategy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 119-133, March.
    16. Menconi, M.E. & Giordano, S. & Grohmann, D., 2022. "Revisiting global food production and consumption patterns by developing resilient food systems for local communities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. H. Allen Klaiber & Joshua K. Abbott & V. Kerry Smith, 2017. "Some Like It (Less) Hot: Extracting Trade-Off Measures for Physically Coupled Amenities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 1053-1079.
    18. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    19. Alper Ozpinar, 2023. "A Hyper-Integrated Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to Gamification and Carbon Market Enterprise Architecture Framework for Sustainable Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-22, March.
    20. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2022. "Temperature and risk of diarrhoea among children in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:5:p:952-:d:145546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.