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The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China

Author

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  • Lin Zhu

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Zhongshang Yuan

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Xianjun Wang

    (Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Jie Li

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Lu Wang

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Yunxia Liu

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Fuzhong Xue

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Yanxun Liu

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been a substantial burden throughout the Asia-Pacific countries over the past decades. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is important to understand the temperature–disease association for HFMD in different geographical locations. This study aims to assess the impact of temperature on HFMD incidence in an inland city and a coastal city and investigate the heterogeneity of temperature–disease associations. Daily morbidity data and meteorological variables of the study areas were collected for the period from 2007 to 2012. A total of 108,377 HFMD cases were included in this study. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution was used to examine the nonlinear lagged effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence. After controlling potential confounders, temperature showed significant association with HFMD incidence and the two cities demonstrated different impact modes ( I 2 = 96.1%; p < 0.01). The results highlight the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence and the impact pattern may be modified by geographical localities. Our findings can be a practical reference for the early warning and intervention strategies of HFMD.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Zhu & Zhongshang Yuan & Xianjun Wang & Jie Li & Lu Wang & Yunxia Liu & Fuzhong Xue & Yanxun Liu, 2015. "The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:8:p:8691-8704:d:53079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ruixue Huang & Guolin Bian & Tianfeng He & Lv Chen & Guozhang Xu, 2016. "Effects of Meteorological Parameters and PM 10 on the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Children in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Zhihui Liu & Yongna Meng & Hao Xiang & Yuanan Lu & Suyang Liu, 2020. "Association of Short-Term Exposure to Meteorological Factors and Risk of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Rui Zhang & Zhen Guo & Yujie Meng & Songwang Wang & Shaoqiong Li & Ran Niu & Yu Wang & Qing Guo & Yonghong Li, 2021. "Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM in Forecasting the Incidence of HFMD Combined and Uncombined with Exogenous Meteorological Variables in Ningbo, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-14, June.

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