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A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Yunjing Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yuhan Rao

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Xiaoxu Wu

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Hainan Zhao

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Jin Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components ( i.e. , pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses ( i.e. , historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunjing Wang & Yuhan Rao & Xiaoxu Wu & Hainan Zhao & Jin Chen, 2015. "A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:1:p:767-783:d:44727
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yan Ma & Arvid Bring & Zahra Kalantari & Georgia Destouni, 2019. "Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-11, October.
    2. Bin Guo & Zhongsheng Chen & Jinyun Guo & Feng Liu & Chuanfa Chen & Kangli Liu, 2016. "Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Lin Zhu & Zhongshang Yuan & Xianjun Wang & Jie Li & Lu Wang & Yunxia Liu & Fuzhong Xue & Yanxun Liu, 2015. "The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, July.

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