IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v3y2021i2p23-376d563347.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithm Based on Bivariate Copula Functions

Author

Listed:
  • J. A. Carrillo

    (Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Faculty of Mathematics, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • M. Nieto

    (Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Faculty of Mathematics, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • J. F. Velez

    (Department of Computer Science, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieria Informatica, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Mostoles, 28933 Madrid, Spain)

  • D. Velez

    (Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Faculty of Mathematics, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

A novel forecasting method based on copula functions is proposed. It consists of an iterative algorithm in which a dependent variable is decomposed as a sum of error terms, where each one of them is estimated identifying the input variable which best “copulate” with it. The method has been tested over popular reference datasets, achieving competitive results in comparison with other well-known machine learning techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • J. A. Carrillo & M. Nieto & J. F. Velez & D. Velez, 2021. "A New Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithm Based on Bivariate Copula Functions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:23-376:d:563347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/3/2/23/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/3/2/23/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nguyen-Huy, Thong & Deo, Ravinesh C. & An-Vo, Duc-Anh & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Khan, Shahjahan, 2017. "Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 153-172.
    2. Genest, Christian & Nešlehová, Johanna, 2007. "A Primer on Copulas for Count Data," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 475-515, November.
    3. Fabrizio Durante, 2013. "Simulating Copulas: Stochastic Models, Sampling Algorithms and Applications by Jan-Frederik Mai, Matthias Scherer, with contributions by Claudia Czado, Elke Korn, Ralf Korn, Jakob Stöber," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(2), pages 307-307, August.
    4. Domino, Krzysztof, 2020. "Multivariate cumulants in outlier detection for financial data analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    5. Chang, Bo & Joe, Harry, 2019. "Prediction based on conditional distributions of vine copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 45-63.
    6. Fadillah Mansor & Naseem Al Rahahleh & M. Ishaq Bhatti, 2019. "New evidence on fund performance in extreme events," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 511-532, April.
    7. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
    8. Al Rahahleh, Naseem & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2017. "Co-movement measure of information transmission on international equity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 119-131.
    9. Zimmer, David M. & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2006. "Using Trivariate Copulas to Model Sample Selection and Treatment Effects: Application to Family Health Care Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 63-76, January.
    10. Tiziano Bellini, 2010. "Detecting atypical observations in financial data: the forward search for elliptical copulas," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 4(4), pages 287-299, December.
    11. Sabyasachi Guharay & KC Chang & Jie Xu, 2017. "Robust Estimation of Value-at-Risk through Distribution-Free and Parametric Approaches Using the Joint Severity and Frequency Model: Applications in Financial, Actuarial, and Natural Calamities Domain," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-30, July.
    12. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
    13. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    14. Nguyen, Cuong & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Komorníková, Magda & Komorník, Jozef, 2016. "Gold price and stock markets nexus under mixed-copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 283-292.
    15. Annalisa Di Clemente & Claudio Romano, 2004. "Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula-based Approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(3), pages 325-357, November.
    16. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    17. Oleg Sokolinskiy & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility with Copula-Based Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-125/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Walayat Hussain & Asma Musabah Alkalbani & Honghao Gao, 2021. "Forecasting with Machine Learning Techniques," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-2, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azam, Kazim & Pitt, Michael, 2014. "Bayesian Inference for a Semi-Parametric Copula-based Markov Chain," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1051, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Azam, Kazim & Pitt, Michael, 2014. "Bayesian Inference for a Semi-Parametric Copula-based Markov Chain," Economic Research Papers 270232, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit & André Lucas & Anne Opschoor, 2018. "Dynamic discrete copula models for high‐frequency stock price changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 966-985, November.
    4. De Lira Salvatierra, Irving & Patton, Andrew J., 2015. "Dynamic copula models and high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 120-135.
    5. Crook, Jonathan & Moreira, Fernando, 2011. "Checking for asymmetric default dependence in a credit card portfolio: A copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 728-742, September.
    6. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    7. Romera, Rosario & Molanes, Elisa M., 2008. "Copulas in finance and insurance," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws086321, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Duy Duong & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2020. "Tail dependence in emerging ASEAN-6 equity markets: empirical evidence from quantitative approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    10. Tachibana, Minoru, 2022. "Safe haven assets for international stock markets: A regime-switching factor copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Shian-Chang Huang, 2012. "Time-Varying Dependency and Structural Changes in Currency Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 94-127, March.
    12. Guizhou Liu & Xiao-Jing Cai & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Modeling the Dependence Structure of Share Prices among Three Chinese City Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Ahmed, Osama & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Evaluate the economic consequences of revenue insurance programs in Spain using copula models. The case of orange and apple," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212522, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Maziar Sahamkhadam, 2021. "Dynamic copula-based expectile portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 209-223, May.
    16. César Garcia-Gomez & Ana Pérez & Mercedes Prieto-Alaiz, 2022. "The evolution of poverty in the EU-28: a further look based on multivariate tail dependence," Working Papers 605, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    17. Penikas, Henry & Simakova, Varvara, 2009. "Interest Rate Risk Management Based on Copula-GARCH Models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 13(1), pages 3-36.
    18. Raza, Hamid & Wu, Weiou, 2018. "Quantile dependence between the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets – Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 286-296.
    19. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.
    20. Wahbeeah Mohti & Andreia Dionísio & Paulo Ferreira & Isabel Vieira, 2019. "Contagion of the Subprime Financial Crisis on Frontier Stock Markets: A Copula Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:23-376:d:563347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.