A New Metric for CO 2 Emissions Based on the Interaction Between the Efficiency Ratio Entropy/Marginal Product and Energy Use

In an era of growing climate concerns and complex environmental policy challenges, novel approaches for accurate carbon emissions measurement are urgently needed. This article introduces an innovative approach for predicting carbon dioxide emissions by analyzing the interaction between energy consumption and production efficiency, measured through an entropy-to-marginal product ratio. Unlike conventional metrics such as Eurostat measurements or the Kaya identity, our framework establishes explicit connections to fundamental physical laws governing energy transformation while offering flexible elasticity parameters that capture non-linear relationships between efficiency improvements and emission reductions. The research combines theoretical modeling with empirical validation across ten European countries, demonstrating how the entropy-based methodology accounts for both production complexity and energy efficiency where traditional linear models fall short. Analysis reveals that energy-efficient countries demonstrate lower entropy maximization under stable conditions, indicating a direct relationship between operational efficiency and environmental impact. Although the model demonstrates strong predictive capabilities with an exceptional accuracy/information cost ratio, limitations exist in achieving accuracy in some country cases. This study concludes by evaluating these strengths and constraints, acknowledging the need for extended time series analysis and sector-specific applications, and providing clear directions for future research that bridge this promising theoretical contribution with practical environmental policy applications.