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Economic Analysis of Global CO 2 Emissions and Energy Consumption Based on the World Kaya Identity

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  • Alina Yakymchuk

    (Department of Management, University of Information Technologies and Management, 35-225 Rzeszów, Poland
    Department of Public Administration, Law and Humanity Sciences, Kherson State Agrarian and Economical University, 73006 Kropyvnytskiy, Ukraine)

  • Simone Maxand

    (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, 15230 Frankfurt, Germany)

  • Anna Lewandowska

    (Department of Management, University of Information Technologies and Management, 35-225 Rzeszów, Poland)

Abstract

This research seeks to elucidate the relationship between economic activities, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions, thereby contributing to a deeper understanding of the economic dimensions of climate change mitigation efforts within the European context, which may be useful for developing policies to mitigate CO 2 emissions and promote sustainable development. This study investigates world CO 2 emissions and their relation to population growth and finds a strong positive relation based on data from 1969 to 2023. The World Kaya Identity has been applied to understand how changes in the involved factors affect CO 2 emissions over time. When studying the more complex relation between the variables by controlling for energy use, GDP, and carbon intensity based on the Kaya Identity, the authors identified an overall long-term coupling of all factors. Considering short-term variations, population growth appears to have an insignificant effect, and carbon intensity appears most influential on CO 2 emissions. As a next step, we take a disaggregated view on different country settings, economic sectors, and energy sources to further analyze the role carbon intensity plays for increased CO 2 emissions. Here, we lay a special focus on the European perspective. This descriptive analysis lets us draw some general conclusions regarding strategies for reducing the negative impact of CO 2 emissions and political efforts for sustainability transformations. This study is important for the current state of science, since a clear economic assessment of the negative effects of carbon dioxide is necessary for planning measures and costs in the ecological sphere, the correct assessment of the impact on the health of the population, the prospective implementation of preventive measures at all levels, and financing measures to reduce the negative effects of carbon dioxide. The authors found a significant positive effect of GDPpc, energy intensity, and carbon intensity on impact and an insignificant effect on the population. Thus, an unexpected increase in the population likely does not have short-term effects on CO 2 emissions, and the responses to GDPpc and energy intensity both decrease after some periods, while the shock in carbon intensity shows a significant effect even after 10 years. This is reasonable in the sense that both increases in GDP and energy intensity might be alleviated by technological progress and, thus, only show a short-term positive effect on CO 2 emissions. The carbon intensity of energy consumption is more crucial for the long-term change of CO 2 emissions. For this reason, we study the decomposition of energy use in more detail by considering descriptive statistics over time and over different sectors and countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Yakymchuk & Simone Maxand & Anna Lewandowska, 2025. "Economic Analysis of Global CO 2 Emissions and Energy Consumption Based on the World Kaya Identity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:7:p:1661-:d:1621226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alina Yakymchuk & Małgorzata Agnieszka Rataj, 2025. "Economic Analysis of Fossil CO 2 Emissions: A European Perspective on Sustainable Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-20, April.

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