The Optimal Strategy for Supplying Single-Family Homes with Electricity Using Photovoltaic Installations

In this paper, an analysis of the feasibility of photovoltaic installations for individual consumers in Poland was carried out. For this purpose, an author’s model of the feasibility of small-scale photovoltaic installations for individual consumers was developed, depending on the following: the adopted strategy for the installed capacity and the changing economic and social environment in which electricity from this installation will be produced. Based on the model built, the costs of obtaining electricity from a photovoltaic installation were determined, using the methodology of calculated costs of electricity production. The lifetime of a small photovoltaic installation is 20 years, during which time the conditions for generating electricity can change significantly. Accordingly, five states of the economic and social environment were determined, ranging from extremely unfavourable to extremely favourable. The total costs of procuring electricity in these states took into account the additional costs or benefits of changing the price of electricity additionally procured from the electricity grid, in years with less sunshine, or sold to the grid, in years with high sunshine, and the possibilities of taxing the production of that energy. Using the method of individual choice, which is an element of game theory, the optimal strategy for equipping the customer with a small photovoltaic installation was determined, taking into account the changing economic and social environment.