IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i14p3876-d1706197.html

Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Olena Pavlova

    (Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicz 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
    Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave, 13, Lutsk, 43025 Volyn Region, Ukraine)

  • Kostiantyn Pavlov

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave, 13, Lutsk, 43025 Volyn Region, Ukraine)

  • Oksana Liashenko

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave, 13, Lutsk, 43025 Volyn Region, Ukraine
    Loughborough Business School, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK)

  • Andrzej Jamróz

    (Faculty of Management, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicz 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland)

  • Sławomir Kopeć

    (Faculty of Computer Science, AGH University of Krakow, Al. Mickiewicz 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland)

Abstract

This study investigates the short- and long-run drivers of natural gas consumption in the European Union using an ARDL bounds testing approach. The analysis incorporates GDP per capita, liquid fuel use, and solid fuel use as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests confirm mixed integration orders, allowing valid ARDL estimation. The results reveal a statistically significant long-run relationship (cointegration) between gas consumption and the energy–economic system. In the short run, the use of liquid fuel exerts a strong positive influence on gas demand, while the effects of GDP materialise only after a two-year lag. Solid fuels show a delayed substitutive impact, reflecting the ongoing transition from coal. An error correction model confirms rapid convergence to equilibrium, with 77% of deviations corrected within one period. Recursive residual and CUSUM tests indicate structural stability over time. These findings highlight the responsiveness of EU gas demand to both economic and policy signals, offering valuable insights for energy modelling and strategic planning under the European Green Deal.

Suggested Citation

  • Olena Pavlova & Kostiantyn Pavlov & Oksana Liashenko & Andrzej Jamróz & Sławomir Kopeć, 2025. "Gas in Transition: An ARDL Analysis of Economic and Fuel Drivers in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:14:p:3876-:d:1706197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/14/3876/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/14/3876/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Müller & Jordi J. Teixidó, 2021. "The effect of the EU ETS free allowance allocation on energy mix diversification: the case of Poland’s power sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 804-822, July.
    2. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    3. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.
    4. Tomasz Rokicki & Radosław Jadczak & Adam Kucharski & Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & András Szeberényi & Aleksandra Perkowska, 2022. "Changes in Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity in EU Countries as a Result of the COVID-19 Pandemic by Sector and Area Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-26, August.
    5. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    6. Filippos Proedrou, 2023. "EU Decarbonization under Geopolitical Pressure: Changing Paradigms and Implications for Energy and Climate Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    7. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 641-647, September.
    8. Sofia Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki & Paolo Bertoldi & Francesca Diluiso & Luca Castellazzi & Marina Economidou & Nicola Labanca & Tiago Ribeiro Serrenho & Paolo Zangheri, 2019. "Analysis of the EU Residential Energy Consumption: Trends and Determinants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-27, March.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2947-2953.
    10. Marta Daroń & Marlena Wilk, 2021. "Management of Energy Sources and the Development Potential in the Energy Production Sector—A Comparison of EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-12, January.
    11. Janusz Myszczyszyn & Błażej Suproń, 2021. "Relationship among Economic Growth (GDP), Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emission: Evidence from V4 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    12. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-abrell is not listed on IDEAS
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Marius-Corneliu Marinaș & Marin Dinu & Aura-Gabriela Socol & Cristian Socol, 2018. "Renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Causality relationship in Central and Eastern European countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, October.
    15. Jan Abrell & Hannes Weigt, 2016. "The Short and Long Term Impact of Europe’s Natural Gas Market on Electricity Markets until 2050," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3_suppl), pages 125-146, December.
    16. Mihaela Simionescu & Carmen Beatrice Păuna & Tiberiu Diaconescu, 2020. "Renewable Energy and Economic Performance in the Context of the European Green Deal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2023. "Examining the Drivers of Natural Gas Price in Europe - Focus on the Role of Speculators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 356-366, May.
    18. Mihail Busu, 2020. "Analyzing the Impact of the Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth at the EU Level Using an ARDL Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olena Pavlova & Oksana Liashenko & Kostiantyn Pavlov & Marek Rutkowski & Artur Kornatka & Tetiana Vlasenko & Mykola Halei, 2025. "Discourse vs. Decarbonisation: Tracking the Alignment Between EU Climate Rhetoric and National Energy Patterns," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Wei Jiang & Xiangyu Liu & Jierui Zhang & Dianguang Liu & Hua Wei, 2025. "How Do Carbon Market and Fossil Energy Market Affect Each Other During the COVID-19, Russia–Ukraine War and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-22, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brini, Riadh & Amara, Mohamed & Jemmali, Hatem, 2017. "Renewable energy consumption, International trade, oil price and economic growth inter-linkages: The case of Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 620-627.
    2. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    3. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Monash Economics Working Papers 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Energy conservation policies, growth and trade performance: Evidence of feedback hypothesis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Gerard Bikorimana & Charles Rutikanga & Didier Mwizerwa, 2020. "Linking energy consumption with economic growth: Rwanda as a case study," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(2), pages 181-200.
    6. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    8. Cowan, Wendy N. & Chang, Tsangyao & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-368.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ozturk, Ilhan & Afza, Talat & Ali, Amjad, 2013. "Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve in a global economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 494-502.
    10. Desire Wade Atchike & Zhen-Yu Zhao & Geriletu Bao, 2020. "The Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Case of Benin," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 507-515.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-514 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Electricity Consumption in a Rentier State: Do Institutions Matter ?," Working papers of CATT hal-01880334, HAL.
    13. Mansoor Ahmed KOONDHAR & Lingling QIU & LI Houjian & Weiwei LIU & HE Ge, 2018. "A nexus between air pollution, energy consumption and growth of economy: A comparative study between the USA and China-based on the ARDL bound testing approach," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 265-276.
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    15. Komain JIRANYAKUL, 2014. "Energy Use Trade Nexus What Does the Data Set Say for Thailand," Journal of Advanced Research in Management, ASERS Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 5-12.
    16. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Environmental Kuznets curve in an open economy: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 325-336.
    18. Ozturk, Ilhan & Al-Mulali, Usama, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus: Panel data analysis for GCC countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 998-1003.
    19. Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid, 2016. "Does the need for economic growth influence energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Nigeria? Evidence from the innovation accounting test," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1209-1225.
    20. Sohail Amjed & Iqtidar Ali Shah & Adnan Riaz, 2022. "Investigating the Interactive Role of Demand Side Factors Potentially Responsible for Energy Crisis in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 236-246, May.
    21. Mahmoud Radwan Hussein AlZgool & Syed Mir Muhammad Shah & Umair Ahmed, 2020. "Impact of Energy consumption and Economic Growth on Environmental Performance: Implications for Green Policy Practitioners," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 655-662.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:14:p:3876-:d:1706197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.