Analysis of Renewable Energy Absorption Potential via Security-Constrained Power System Production Simulation

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources presents significant challenges for power system stability and operation. Accurately assessing renewable energy absorption capacity is essential to ensuring grid reliability while maximizing renewable integration. This paper proposes a security-constrained sequential production simulation (SPS) framework, which incorporates grid voltage and frequency support constraints to provide a more realistic evaluation of renewable energy absorption capability. Additionally, hierarchical clustering (HC) based on dynamic time warping (DTW) and min-max linkage is employed for temporal aggregation (TA), significantly reducing computational complexity while preserving key system characteristics. A case study on the IEEE 39-bus system, integrating wind and photovoltaic generation alongside high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the security-constrained SPS successfully prevents overvoltage and frequency deviations by bringing additional conventional units online. The study also highlights that increasing grid demand, both locally and through HVDC export, enhances renewable energy absorption, though adequate grid support remains crucial.