IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i13p3126-d1421752.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamic Cointegration Relationship between International Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal Price

Author

Listed:
  • Lv Chen

    (Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Jungong Road 516, Yangpu District, Shanghai 200093, China)

  • Lingying Pan

    (Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Jungong Road 516, Yangpu District, Shanghai 200093, China)

  • Kaige Zhang

    (Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Jungong Road 516, Yangpu District, Shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract

In this study, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamic cointegration relationship between international crude oil, natural gas, and coal price indices from 2009 to 2023, revealing the changes and differences in the cointegration relationship between these three prices during different periods. Utilizing statistical analysis and economic modeling, we found significant cointegration among these energy prices during the initial decade-long observation period, indicating their close interaction in the global energy market influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical landscapes. However, since 2020, this long-standing stable cointegration relationship has been severely disrupted due to the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to a notable increase in volatility and uncertainty in the energy market. Further analysis highlights that, in recent years, with the strengthening of global climate governance and the advancement of the low-carbon transition trend, fossil fuel markets, particularly high-carbon-emitting crude oil and coal markets, have undergone significant adjustments. Meanwhile, the role of natural gas as a transitional clean energy source has become increasingly prominent. The findings of this study have significant implications for energy policy formulation, market risk management, and strategic planning in the energy industry, while providing directions for future research on resilience and adaptability in the transition process of energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lv Chen & Lingying Pan & Kaige Zhang, 2024. "The Dynamic Cointegration Relationship between International Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:13:p:3126-:d:1421752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/13/3126/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/13/3126/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xin, Baogui & Zhang, Mengwei, 2023. "Evolutionary game on international energy trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Hassan Mohammadi, 2011. "Long-run relations and short-run dynamics among coal, natural gas and oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 129-137.
    3. David J. Ramberg and John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Liu, Yang & Xie, Xiaoqing & Wang, Mei, 2023. "Energy structure and carbon emission: Analysis against the background of the current energy crisis in the EU," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    5. Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2006. "Testing for Market Integration: Crude Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 55-72.
    6. Diana Joița & Mirela Panait & Carmen-Elena Dobrotă & Alin Diniță & Adrian Neacșa & Laura Elly Naghi, 2023. "The European Dilemma—Energy Security or Green Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-16, April.
    7. Khan, Khalid & Khurshid, Adnan & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2023. "Energy security analysis in a geopolitically volatile world: A causal study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Norbert Bozsik & András Szeberényi & Nándor Bozsik, 2023. "Examination of the Hungarian Electricity Industry Structure with Special Regard to Renewables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-23, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hongtao Ren & Wenji Zhou & Hangzhou Wang & Bo Zhang & Tieju Ma, 2022. "An energy system optimization model accounting for the interrelations of multiple stochastic energy prices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 316(1), pages 555-579, September.
    2. Li, Fengyun & Li, Xingmei & Zheng, Haofeng & Yang, Fei & Dang, Ruinan, 2021. "How alternative energy competition shocks natural gas development in China: A novel time series analysis approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Jerzy Rembeza, 2020. "Coal Prices in Poland: Is the Domestic Market Separated from the International Market?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 405-410.
    4. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    5. Hasanli, Mübariz, 2024. "Re-examining crude oil and natural gas price relationship: Evidence from time-varying regime-switching models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2016. "Linking the gas and oil markets with the stock market: Investigating the U.S. relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 5-16.
    7. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi & Wael Louhichi, 2022. "Measuring extreme risk dependence between the oil and gas markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 755-772, June.
    8. Lindback, Morten & Osmundsen, Petter & Øglend, Atle, 2013. "Shale Gas and the Relationship between U.S. Natural Gas, Liquified Petroleum Gases and Oil Market," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/5, University of Stavanger.
    9. Ramberg, David J. & Henry Chen, Y.H. & Paltsev, Sergey & Parsons, John E., 2017. "The economic viability of gas-to-liquids technology and the crude oil–natural gas price relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 13-21.
    10. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2015. "Pricing the (European) option to switch between two energy sources: An application to crude oil and natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 270-283.
    11. Zied Ftiti & Kais Tissaoui & Sahbi Boubaker, 2022. "On the relationship between oil and gas markets: a new forecasting framework based on a machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 915-943, June.
    12. Kentaka Aruga & Shunsuke Managi, 2013. "Linkages among the US energy futures markets," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 36(1), pages 13-26.
    13. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
    14. Narjes Zamani, 2016. "How the Crude Oil Market Affects the Natural Gas Market? Demand and Supply Shocks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 217-221.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11692 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Raymond Li & David C. Broadstock, 2021. "Coal Pricing in China: Is It a Bit Too Crude?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-13, June.
    17. Atle Oglend & Morten E. Lindback & Petter Osmundsen, 2016. "Shale Gas Boom Affecting the Relationship Between LPG and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 211-232, January.
    18. Jorge Chebeir & Aryan Geraili & Jose Romagnoli, 2017. "Development of Shale Gas Supply Chain Network under Market Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-31, February.
    19. Guo, Yanfeng & Zhao, Huanyu, 2024. "Volatility spillovers between oil and coal prices and its implications for energy portfolio management in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 446-457.
    20. Potts, Todd B. & Yerger, David B., 2016. "Marcellus Shale and structural breaks in oil and gas markets: The case of Pennsylvania," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 50-58.
    21. Olsson, Olle & Hillring, Bengt, 2014. "The wood fuel market in Denmark – Price development, market efficiency and internationalization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 141-148.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:13:p:3126-:d:1421752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.