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On Solar Radiation Prediction for the East–Central European Region

Author

Listed:
  • Michał Mierzwiak

    (Faculty of Civil Engrineering and Geodesy, Military University of Technology, Gen. S. Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Kroszczyński

    (Faculty of Civil Engrineering and Geodesy, Military University of Technology, Gen. S. Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Andrzej Araszkiewicz

    (Faculty of Civil Engrineering and Geodesy, Military University of Technology, Gen. S. Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present the results of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model of solar radiation for moderate climatic zones. This analysis covered the area of northeastern Germany. Due to very unfavorable solar energy conditions in this region for at least 1/3 of the year, we decided to select the dates with the most representative conditions: passing warm fronts, cold fronts, and occluded fronts (two cases each). As the reference, two cloudless conditions during high-pressure situations were chosen. Two different shortwave radiation schemes—Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation model (RRTMG) and Dudhia—were tested. The obtained results were compared with in situ data measured at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) stations and then with European Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results showed that for high-pressure situations, the mean correlations with measured data were above 90%. The Dudhia scheme, in addition to the expected good results for the high-pressure situation, showed better results than RRTMG for the warm and cold fronts as well. The forecast using the RRTMG scheme gave the best results for the occluded front, which were also better than those of the ERA5 model.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Mierzwiak & Krzysztof Kroszczyński & Andrzej Araszkiewicz, 2022. "On Solar Radiation Prediction for the East–Central European Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3153-:d:802340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zempila, Melina-Maria & Giannaros, Theodore M. & Bais, Alkiviadis & Melas, Dimitris & Kazantzidis, Andreas, 2016. "Evaluation of WRF shortwave radiation parameterizations in predicting Global Horizontal Irradiance in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 831-840.
    2. Sarmiento, Nilsa & Belmonte, Silvina & Dellicompagni, Pablo & Franco, Judith & Escalante, Karina & Sarmiento, Joaquín, 2019. "A solar irradiation GIS as decision support tool for the Province of Salta, Argentina," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 68-80.
    3. Cross, Sam & Hast, Aira & Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli & Syri, Sanna & Streimikiene, Dalia & Denina, Arta, 2015. "Progress in renewable electricity in Northern Europe towards EU 2020 targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1768-1780.
    4. Zhenhai Guo & Xia Xiao, 2014. "Wind Power Assessment Based on a WRF Wind Simulation with Developed Power Curve Modeling Methods," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-15, July.
    5. Perpiña Castillo, Carolina & Batista e Silva, Filipe & Lavalle, Carlo, 2016. "An assessment of the regional potential for solar power generation in EU-28," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 86-99.
    6. Saverio Teodosio Nilo & Domenico Cimini & Francesco Di Paola & Donatello Gallucci & Sabrina Gentile & Edoardo Geraldi & Salvatore Larosa & Elisabetta Ricciardelli & Ermann Ripepi & Mariassunta Viggian, 2020. "Fog Forecast Using WRF Model Output for Solar Energy Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-28, November.
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    1. Michał Mierzwiak & Krzysztof Kroszczyński, 2023. "Impact of Domain Nesting on High-Resolution Forecasts of Solar Conditions in Central and Eastern Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-24, June.

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