Assessment of Geothermal Resources in the North Jiangsu Basin, East China, Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Geothermal energy has been recognized as an important clean renewable energy. Accurate assessment of geothermal resources is an essential foundation for their development and utilization. The North Jiangsu Basin (NJB), located in the Lower Yangtze Craton, is shaped like a wedge block of an ancient plate boundary and large-scale carbonate thermal reservoirs are developed in the deep NJB. Moreover, the NJB exhibits a high heat flow background because of its extensive extension since the Late Mesozoic. In this study, we used the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the geothermal resources of the main reservoir shallower than 10 km in the NJB. Compared with the volumetric method, the Monte Carlo method takes into account the variation mode and uncertainties of the input parameters. The simulation results show that the geothermal resources of the sandstone thermal reservoir in the shallow NJB are very rich, with capacities of (6.6–12) × 10 20 J (mean 8.6 × 10 20 J), (5.1–16) × 10 20 J (mean 9.1 × 10 20 J), and (3.2–11) × 10 20 J (mean 6.6 × 10 20 J) for the Yancheng, Sanduo and Dai’nan sandstone reservoir, respectively. In addition, the capacity of the geothermal resource of the carbonate thermal reservoir in the deep NJB is far greater than the former, reaching (9.9–15) × 10 21 J (mean 12 × 10 21 J). The results indicate capacities of a range value of (1.2–1.7) × 10 21 J (mean 1.4 × 10 22 J) for the whole NJB (<10 km).