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Energy War Strategies: The 21st Century Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Nazim Hajiyev

    (Department of Economics and Business Administration, Center for Development Economıc Research, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku AZ1001, Azerbaijan
    Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA)

  • Klaudia Smoląg

    (Department of Information Management Systems, Faculty of Management, Czestochowa University of Technology, 69, 42-200 Czestochowa, Poland)

  • Ali Abbasov

    (Azerbaijan Energy Research Institute, Baku AZ1000, Azerbaijan)

  • Valeriy Prasolov

    (Department of Economic Security and Risk Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 125993 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify the potential initiators of energy wars and determine their boundaries of influence through the prism of energy dependency. The study also evaluated the impact of energy resources on the economic development of 48 countries. The development priorities of those countries were substantiated through establishing the linkage between energy intensity and indicators reflecting the impact of energy resources on economic development. The study offered an energy dependence matrix, which shows which market players can actively participate in energy wars. Using data from the matrix and integrative analysis of energy dependence indicators, the energy dependence forecast was made. The forecast presents optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios for the short-term (up to 2025) and long-term (up to 2030) impacts of energy wars. The study proposes a novel approach to assessing the impact of energy wars, which implies that the consequences of energy-induced conflict should be evaluated based on forecasted and threshold values. The major threat to the global energy market was found to be political instability in energy-rich countries. The proposed methodological approach is suitable for all groups of countries and allows preventing negative consequences of energy wars through minimizing the level of energy dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazim Hajiyev & Klaudia Smoląg & Ali Abbasov & Valeriy Prasolov, 2020. "Energy War Strategies: The 21st Century Experience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:21:p:5797-:d:440683
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