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EV Idle Time Estimation on Charging Infrastructure, Comparing Supervised Machine Learning Regressions

Author

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  • Alexandre Lucas

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate C—Energy, Transport and Climate, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy)

  • Ricardo Barranco

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate B—Growth and Innovation, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy)

  • Nazir Refa

    (ElaadNL, Utrechtseweg 310 (bld. 42B), 6812 AR Arnhem (GL), The Netherlands)

Abstract

The adoption of electric vehicles (EV) has to be complemented with the right charging infrastructure roll-out. This infrastructure is already in place in many cities throughout the main markets of China, EU and USA. Public policies are both taken at regional and/or at a city level targeting both EV adoption, but also charging infrastructure management. A growing trend is the increasing idle time over the years (time an EV is connected without charging), which directly impacts on the sizing of the infrastructure, hence its cost or availability. Such a phenomenon can be regarded as an opportunity but may very well undermine the same initiatives being taken to promote adoption; in any case it must be measured, studied, and managed. The time an EV takes to charge depends on its initial/final state of charge (SOC) and the power being supplied to it. The problem however is to estimate the time the EV remains parked after charging (idle time), as it depends on many factors which simple statistical analysis cannot tackle. In this study we apply supervised machine learning to a dataset from the Netherlands and analyze three regression algorithms, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost, identifying the most accurate one and main influencing parameters. The model can provide useful information for EV users, policy maker and network owners to better manage the network, targeting specific variables. The best performing model is XGBoost with an R 2 score of 60.32% and mean absolute error of 1.11. The parameters influencing the model the most are: The time of day in which the charging sessions start and the total energy supplied with 22.35%, 15.57% contribution respectively. Partial dependencies of variables and model performances are presented and implications on public policies discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Lucas & Ricardo Barranco & Nazir Refa, 2019. "EV Idle Time Estimation on Charging Infrastructure, Comparing Supervised Machine Learning Regressions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:269-:d:198214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexandre Lucas & Giuseppe Prettico & Marco Giacomo Flammini & Evangelos Kotsakis & Gianluca Fulli & Marcelo Masera, 2018. "Indicator-Based Methodology for Assessing EV Charging Infrastructure Using Exploratory Data Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Wolbertus, Rick & Kroesen, Maarten & van den Hoed, Robert & Chorus, Caspar, 2018. "Fully charged: An empirical study into the factors that influence connection times at EV-charging stations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-7.
    3. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Athanasios Paraskevas & Dimitrios Aletras & Antonios Chrysopoulos & Antonios Marinopoulos & Dimitrios I. Doukas, 2022. "Optimal Management for EV Charging Stations: A Win–Win Strategy for Different Stakeholders Using Constrained Deep Q-Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Einolander, Johannes & Lahdelma, Risto, 2022. "Multivariate copula procedure for electric vehicle charging event simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    4. Einolander, Johannes & Lahdelma, Risto, 2022. "Explicit demand response potential in electric vehicle charging networks: Event-based simulation based on the multivariate copula procedure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Sanchari Deb, 2021. "Machine Learning for Solving Charging Infrastructure Planning Problems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Ahmad Almaghrebi & Fares Aljuheshi & Mostafa Rafaie & Kevin James & Mahmoud Alahmad, 2020. "Data-Driven Charging Demand Prediction at Public Charging Stations Using Supervised Machine Learning Regression Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Mengting Yao & Yun Zhu & Junjie Li & Hua Wei & Penghui He, 2019. "Research on Predicting Line Loss Rate in Low Voltage Distribution Network Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-14, June.
    8. George Konstantinidis & Emmanuel Karapidakis & Alexandros Paspatis, 2022. "Mitigating the Impact of an Official PEV Charger Deployment Plan on an Urban Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Chen, Jiahui & Wang, Fang & He, Xiaoyi & Liang, Xinyu & Huang, Junling & Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye, 2022. "Emission mitigation potential from coordinated charging schemes for future private electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    10. Hongyuan Yuan & Jingan Liu & Yu Zhou & Hailong Pei, 2023. "State of Charge Estimation of Lithium Battery Based on Integrated Kalman Filter Framework and Machine Learning Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Adrian Ostermann & Yann Fabel & Kim Ouan & Hyein Koo, 2022. "Forecasting Charging Point Occupancy Using Supervised Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.
    12. Afentoulis, Konstantinos D. & Bampos, Zafeirios N. & Vagropoulos, Stylianos I. & Keranidis, Stratos D. & Biskas, Pantelis N., 2022. "Smart charging business model framework for electric vehicle aggregators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    13. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    14. Milan Straka & Pasquale De Falco & Gabriella Ferruzzi & Daniela Proto & Gijs van der Poel & Shahab Khormali & v{L}ubov{s} Buzna, 2019. "Predicting popularity of EV charging infrastructure from GIS data," Papers 1910.02498, arXiv.org.

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