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Second-Order Least Squares Estimation in Nonlinear Time Series Models with ARCH Errors

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Salamh

    (Department of Statistics, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt)

  • Liqun Wang

    (Department of Statistics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada)

Abstract

Many financial and economic time series exhibit nonlinear patterns or relationships. However, most statistical methods for time series analysis are developed for mean-stationary processes that require transformation, such as differencing of the data. In this paper, we study a dynamic regression model with nonlinear, time-varying mean function, and autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic errors. We propose an estimation approach based on the first two conditional moments of the response variable, which does not require specification of error distribution. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established under strong-mixing condition, so that the results apply to both stationary and mean-nonstationary processes. Moreover, the proposed approach is shown to be superior to the commonly used quasi-likelihood approach and the efficiency gain is significant when the (conditional) error distribution is asymmetric. We demonstrate through a real data example that the proposed method can identify a more accurate model than the quasi-likelihood method.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Salamh & Liqun Wang, 2021. "Second-Order Least Squares Estimation in Nonlinear Time Series Models with ARCH Errors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:41-:d:689472
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liqun Wang & Alexandre Leblanc, 2008. "Second-order nonlinear least squares estimation," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 60(4), pages 883-900, December.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
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    5. Dedi Rosadi & Shelton Peiris, 2014. "Second-order least-squares estimation for regression models with autocorrelated errors," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 931-943, October.
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    7. Mijeong Kim & Yanyuan Ma, 2012. "The efficiency of the second-order nonlinear least squares estimator and its extension," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 64(4), pages 751-764, August.
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    9. Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2002. "The Econometrics of Financial Time Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 237-243, July.
    10. Mustafa Salamh & Liqun Wang, 2021. "Second-Order Least Squares Method for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Application," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Mayer, 2022. "Two-step estimation in linear regressions with adaptive learning," Papers 2204.05298, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.

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